Daily Sharing

Bitcoin often rises above 67000 in the early morning and then turns back down to below 65000. Currently, it has dropped to 64569. In the short term, this cannot be considered an effective breakthrough, as it is still being observed whether the 4-hour candlestick will actually break through 65000. Ethereum has also retraced to around 3350. Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are near important support levels. If there is further decline, subsequent movements will turn into deep retracements.

It is worth noting that many altcoins have reached or even fallen below their weekly lows. Some altcoins, such as crv, das, fxs, ape, rdnt, kava, and enj, have hit new lows. Many previously popular coins are now facing the risk of approaching zero. Many altcoins have directly erased the bull market gains since October last year, with only a few hot or performing well coins showing resistance to the decline. For example, the performance of ENS, which I currently hold, is good.

The decline of altcoins can be divided into two stages. The first stage was when Bitcoin started a daily downtrend from 73777, during which 80% of altcoins were halved. Then, when Bitcoin started to rise from 56552, most altcoins did not rise much, with most gains staying within 30%. Subsequently, as Bitcoin failed to break through 72000 multiple times, altcoins faced a large amount of selling pressure. Currently, they are in a state of being halved twice.

It's no wonder that many people are calling out "the end of the bull market" and "no more spring for altcoins." However, in reality, I believe that the current market situation is still very similar to that of 2020. It is well known that the previous bull market for altcoins actually occurred from January to May 2021, which was the explosive period for altcoins after the halving. In the same year as the previous halving, 2020, altcoins experienced a sharp decline in March, and by the end of the year, many altcoins fell below their historical lows despite Bitcoin hitting a historical high in November and December. It was only after a violent and bloody clearing of the 1-3 times leverage that a decent altcoin season arrived.

Therefore, retail investors in the previous bull market also suffered. They were bloodied by the March crash at the beginning of the year and faced a decline in altcoins at the end of the year despite Bitcoin's rise. As someone who has been through this, I have long been indifferent to the current situation of altcoins. I am not surprised by what I see.

I only have two reminders for everyone. Firstly, altcoins themselves are high-risk, high-return assets. If you want altcoins to give you returns of 3 times, 10 times, or even dozens of times, you cannot expect low-risk trading. Secondly, altcoins are also divided into factions. We cannot predict which coins will fall more or less during Bitcoin's retracement. We can only say that it's best to avoid buying old coins that were already popular in the previous bull market, as their rise is limited by layers of trapped positions, making it difficult to push up. Avoid coins without hotspots, liquidity, or speculative sentiment. It's best to buy new coins after they have gone through a few months of washing.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, it is still to be observed whether the fifth 1-hour downtrend has ended. If the short-term retracement falls below 64500 again, the 4-hour retracement may go to around 63000, and then start a 4-hour rebound towards 69000. If the short-term retracement remains around 65000 without breaking 64500, there is a chance for a new 4-hour rebound towards above 72000.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, it is still to be observed whether the current 15-minute retracement will continue to fall below 64500 or rebound above 66000. This is currently under observation.

ETH

Currently, Ethereum is still looking at whether 3350 can hold effectively. At the 1-hour level, it has already had 9 consecutive downtrends. Theoretically, it should start a 4-hour rebound to break through 4000. In reality, we still need to observe whether 3350 can hold. If it cannot, and the short-term further slides to 3200-3150, the subsequent rebound may not necessarily exceed 3900.

One of the most frequently asked questions is: If Bitcoin continues to decline, will altcoins continue to plummet?

My personal answer is not necessarily. Altcoins generally resist after falling to a certain extent, entering a state of resistance to decline. Even if Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, altcoins may only experience a slight decline. As for the specific position of resistance to decline, it is currently unclear. Once altcoins show resistance to decline, it may be a good idea to appropriately bottom fish some hot altcoins for a rebound.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Upward, with a target of 180,000 US dollars for the weekly uptrend.

Daily Level: Upward or downward, whether the daily uptrend has ended prematurely at 72000 needs further observation based on the short-term downtrend.

4-hour Level: Downward, if the short-term falls below 64500 again, it is considered the first 4-hour downtrend within the daily downtrend.

1-hour Level: Downward, if 65000 cannot hold, continue to look at around 63000-62500.

15-minute Level: Downward, observe the intensity of the short-term 15-minute retracement.

Feel free to follow my public account for discussions and exchanges:

This article is time-sensitive. Pay attention to the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。