Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | How about

Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the 19b-4 filing for the Ethereum spot ETF on May 23, the market has been eagerly anticipating the official launch of this product. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently stated that the Ethereum spot ETF may be officially launched this summer. The DTCC official website has also listed the Ethereum spot ETF "INVESCO GALAXY ETHEREUM ETF SHS" (code QETH) jointly launched by Invesco and Galaxy, and the "Create/Redeem" column shows as N.

With SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's statement, the timing of the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF has become clearer: it could be approved as early as June 20 and no later than September 20 (U.S. summer time).

What does the actual launch of the product mean for Ethereum, altcoins, and the cryptocurrency industry? Odaily Planet Daily has compiled analysts' and institutions' views on the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF over the past few weeks.

Various perspectives

Bernstein analysts pointed out that after Biden vetoed the SAB 121 repeal bill, the credibility of the political background behind the approval of the Ethereum ETF by the SEC has decreased. They believe that the SEC's decision is more practical in order to avoid legal disputes. The analysts also pointed out that when approving the Ethereum spot ETF, the SEC may have considered a balance between market demand and legal challenges.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated that there has been a significant shift in sentiment in the crypto market, which is related to the rule changes for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF by the SEC. He believes that this is one of the most surprising things he has seen in his career in securities regulation. Eck pointed out that the SEC may lose jurisdiction over digital assets, so the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is an important strategic adjustment.

BTC Markets Pty CEO Caroline Bowler believes that the demand for the Ethereum spot ETF may be much lower than that of the Bitcoin spot ETF. She pointed out that Ethereum's popularity and market influence are not as high as Bitcoin's, so the market demand for the Ethereum spot ETF may be limited. With a market value of $1.4 trillion, Bitcoin is three times that of Ethereum, indicating that Bitcoin holds a higher position in investors' minds.

JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates that the Ethereum spot ETF will attract net inflows of $1 billion to $3 billion this year. He believes that this inflow of funds will have a positive impact on the Ethereum market, although its scale may not be as large as that of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Panigirtzoglou also pointed out that Ethereum's technical advantages and widespread applications are the main factors attracting investors.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the Ethereum spot ETF may struggle to attract 20% of the assets of the Bitcoin ETF. He believes that the attractiveness of the Ethereum spot ETF is somewhat limited by its market visibility and investor base. Balchunas also pointed out that while the Ethereum spot ETF will attract some inflows, its overall market impact may be limited.

K33 Research senior research analyst Vetle Lunde is optimistic, expecting net inflows of $4 billion in the first five months, bringing about a "huge supply absorption impact." He believes that the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF will have a positive impact on the market, especially in terms of supply. Lunde pointed out that as the ETF attracts a large amount of investment, the market supply of Ethereum will be significantly affected, thereby driving up prices.

Bitfinex derivatives head Jag Kooner stated that the Ethereum spot ETF could attract 10-20% of the funds currently flowing into the Bitcoin ETF. The current inflow situation of the Ethereum spot ETF largely depends on whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will allow or refuse collateral for the spot Ethereum ETF.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that the listing time of the Ethereum spot ETF largely depends on the speed of the issuer's response to the SEC's inquiries. The SEC still needs to approve the registration statement of the ETF issuer, which details the disclosure of information to investors. This process usually involves a lot of communication between the ETF issuer and SEC officials. The approval process of the Ethereum spot ETF is influenced by various factors, including market demand, legal challenges, and internal evaluations within the SEC. He emphasized that the SEC will expedite the review of the S-1 filing while ensuring market transparency and protecting the interests of investors.

Whether the Ethereum spot ETF has collateral functionality or will affect the future market's upward potential

Combining the above, the comments from various institutions and analysts have shifted from whether the Ethereum spot ETF can be approved to whether it can have collateral functionality. As the core function and source of income of the PoS public chain, collateral functionality has become a key factor affecting market fluctuations after the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF. This has led to new expectations of price fluctuations in the market regarding whether it has collateral functionality.

However, CryptoQuant data shows that from May 23 to June 2, the Ethereum reserves on CEX decreased by 797,000 coins, worth approximately $30.2 billion. This phenomenon indicates that the market's expectations for the Ethereum spot ETF have led to a large amount of Ethereum flowing out of exchanges.

Furthermore, on June 12, Coinbase saw an outflow of over 336,000 ETH, setting a record for the highest single-day outflow this year, worth over $1 billion. CryptoQuant analysis suggests that if these withdrawals are not internal changes within the exchange, it may indicate a very optimistic long-term outlook for Ethereum. It is worth noting that CryptoQuant analysts also pointed out similar activities on Coinbase before the start of trading for the Bitcoin spot ETF.

To a certain extent, such activities reflect the market's expectations of a price increase after the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF. Whether it has collateral functionality may only be reflected in the magnitude of the price increase. However, despite the market and various institutions being optimistic about the Ethereum spot ETF, its official launch time still depends on the progress of the SEC's review of the S-1 filing. The summer of this year is expected to be a critical period, and the Ethereum market will undergo a new round of changes after its launch. Investors need to closely monitor the dynamics of the SEC and market reactions in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.

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