The "external debt" in US dollars is different from that of other countries, as it is inherently safe because it is "domestic currency debt" that can be repaid by printing money. The most dangerous situation is foreign currency debt, as you can only print domestic currency. If there is a structural deficit, a negative spiral of exchange rate/deficit/debt will occur after foreign exchange reserves are depleted, as seen in the Southeast Asian crisis and Argentina.

Currently, Japan also has a similar situation. The biggest variable in Japan is whether its foreign exchange reserves are movable, contrary to the rumors that they cannot be moved at all.

In addition, the "external debt" of the United States cannot be solely assessed by looking at US Treasury bonds. Foreign-held US dollar deposits, US stocks, and overseas investments in US real estate are all considered "external debt," indicating that overseas funds coming into the United States have multiple asset choices.

This figure needs to be added to the net inflow of funds into the United States over the past. The scale should be much larger than the overseas holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Of course, some people immigrate to the United States and bring their money with them, which is even more difficult to calculate.

The US asset market essentially exhibits a large Ponzi scheme characteristic because it is supported by continuous inflows of funds. However, within the trinity of the US dollar/US Treasury bonds/US stocks, the main driving force should still be US stocks. The global taxation of US stocks brings in high returns, coupled with the leading position of US technology in "new quality productivity," which is why capital favors them.

From the perspective of capital competition, wars in the European hinterland and the Middle East, as well as sales war warnings in East Asia, all lead to the inflow of capital into the United States.

In the past 5 years, the only competitor to US stocks has been Chinese concept stocks, but they belong to the concept of borrowing your platform to attract your funds, similar to the Chinese version of the milkshake theory. Therefore, they require overseas audits, and the myth of Chinese concept stocks has been shattered, with Bill Huang's $80 billion leverage being depleted to just a few million. Perhaps all of these gray areas and hidden dangers are being driven by capital wars.

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