I reviewed the development process and asset distribution of Runes and Merlin, and suddenly realized a current deadlock in Bitcoin's Layer 2: the mismatch between market structure and products.
Bitcoin's ecological market structure: The total scale of core assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem is approximately $10 billion, consisting of NFTs and MeMe coins. From various indicators such as liquidity, trading volume, volatility, active addresses, and holding addresses in the secondary market, NFTs surpass MeMe coins in the market structure of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Moreover, the seed users of the Bitcoin ecosystem come from the NFT community, and Yuga Labs released the Bitcoin NFT series "Twelve Folds" in the very early stages. To date, Bitcoin ecosystem users exhibit characteristics consistent with the niche subculture of the Ethereum NFT community, which is inconsistent with the original cultural tone of the Bitcoin community.
The infrastructure of the Bitcoin ecosystem was initially built by NFT infrastructure such as Magic Eden and OKX NFT market. Even today, the trading method for homogeneous assets BRC20 and Runes still adopts an NFT-style market order.
From the perspective of the development of homogeneous asset standards, although BRC20 claims to be a homogeneous token standard, it is actually an NFT disguised as FT. As for Runes, although it is a native homogeneous token standard, it still masquerades as an FT due to its UTXO-based nature, aligning with UTXO and integrating the natural NFT characteristics of UTXO.
Therefore, the Bitcoin ecosystem market is actually an NFT market.
The products provided by Bitcoin Layer 2 include DEX, lending, stablecoins, PerpDEX, and so on. These infrastructures are designed for homogeneous assets, not for NFT assets. This explains why Bitcoin Layer 2 cannot consistently and stably attract new emerging Bitcoin Layer 1 assets.
Who has ever seen noble Ethereum NFT players voluntarily running to Ethereum Layer 2 to play NFTs?
It is precisely because of the current mismatch between market structure and products that Bitcoin Layer 2 is in a predicament.
The direction for Bitcoin Layer 2 to break through may be to actively separate from the Bitcoin Layer 1 NFT market, return to Satoshi Nakamoto's vision, and help Bitcoin Layer 1 build and improve a dual-layer P2P electronic currency system, exploring new opportunities in payment, credit, stablecoins, and other application scenarios.
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