Hello everyone, I am your old friend Li Zhongyi, who has been dedicated to the cryptocurrency industry for nearly eight years as a securities analyst. I am an ordinary enthusiast who hopes to see the practical implementation of the Bitcoin technology revolution and witness the prosperity of future currencies with all coin friends. Thank you for your support and likes:

I have discussed the underlying logic of Bitcoin with everyone for a long time. Today, let's talk about the most concerning issue, the Bitcoin market. It can be seen that Bitcoin has recently shown a bearish market. When the market is rising, everyone feels good and the mood is great. However, when the market is falling, there will be some psychological fluctuations to some extent. In this industry, I have experienced many years and have achieved some small results of my own. The reason is that I am not afraid of short-term declines, have confidence and concepts in Bitcoin, and believe that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have broad development prospects. One point is that this overall uptrend may have ended. Why do many people fail to make money when the entire bull market ends? The reason is that they lack a concept of the overall direction. They always think the bull market has ended after a small bull run, and then start to sell off when it falls. They listen to all kinds of negative news and start to desperately cut positions and reduce holdings. When it starts to rise again, they start to listen to various positive remarks and begin to add positions, only to find that others have made money while they are always the ones getting hurt. This is a typical case of being indecisive due to insufficient understanding.

Recently, three funds have applied for the first batch of Bitcoin shareholders to obtain approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and are preparing to issue on April 29th and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 30th. This means that ordinary retail investors will also be able to buy Bitcoin. Let's take a look at the overall trend. In the past ten years, there have been excellent profits every three to four years. If the rhythm is well grasped, wealth can rise to a higher level every three to four years, which is much better than trading in the A-share market. Secondly, according to the latest disclosed data, public funds have significantly reduced their holdings in technology and biotechnology, and significantly increased their holdings in electric power resources and banking during the peak period. Everyone must understand this operation. It has always been a contrarian move recently. Why? Because whatever sector is hot, they buy into that sector, as everyone understands. They attract investors to buy in and then operate in a routine manner to earn management fees. Therefore, everyone must be careful with high-interest rates. There is no need to be pessimistic about technology and biotechnology. Thirdly, it is pointed out that we need to change our mindset and not just be bearish and short. There are two reversal situations. The first is the announcement of the "Five Measures" over the weekend, supporting the RMB in the Hong Kong market and the inclusion of RMB counter trading in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The second is the continuous rise after breaking through the important resistance line, reversing the downward trend.

Currently, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff. Once the support at 62K is broken, it will be enough to give the bulls a hard time. This is called winning without fighting. If the bulls are scared and voluntarily reduce leverage, the market will not fall as much, because there is a cost to bearish selling. The main cost is that the bears will be taken advantage of by the hodlers, who will pick up the cheap coins and intercept the chips. But if the bulls are not willing to experience it themselves and still risk leaving high leverage in place, then the market will definitely not be polite and will help the bulls save face. In short, the profits from blowing up the bulls' leverage must be higher than the cost of selling chips at a discount, which is a good deal. Many believe that the core retail data is rising, showing higher inflation, and the Fed does not want to cut interest rates. People are worried that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, which is a factor to consider. Secondly, Iran's actions have made the market nervous, and people are worried about the escalation of the situation, which has become a hot topic. If the situation does escalate, the market may further pull back. Thirdly, historically, when Bitcoin breaks through the previous high, it often continues to rise, and after the halving, Bitcoin usually continues to rise.

Let's continue to analyze whether this statement is correct. In fact, it is not accurate. A typical example is in January 2017, when Bitcoin broke through the previous high of $1100 at the end of 2013, it oscillated and washed out for nearly four months before truly starting the bull market journey of 2017. Looking at the chart from that year makes it very clear. After the first breakthrough of the previous high, there was an immediate deep retracement, with a retracement of almost 30%. However, after the recent breakthrough of the previous high in March 2024, it only oscillated for about a month and a half, with a maximum retracement of only about 15%. Of course, the retracement and washout in 2017 actually showed an overall upward trend, rather than a sideways or downward trend. According to the view of the author, given everything we see in the macro sense, the current chart pattern follows the typical Wyckoff distribution pattern, indicating that we will definitely see another corrective decline, and more negative news may help fuel this trend.

Therefore, his conclusion is that the market may enter a mid-term bear market. In addition, everyone has also noticed that large institutions have stopped buying in the spot market. ETF inflows have slowed significantly. It needs to be corrected here. The world's largest asset management company's future Bitcoin trust fund has an average of 250,000 transactions per day, so it is not that large institutions have stopped buying, but that retail investors have stopped buying. For retail investors, they often only buy when the price is rising, just like in the real estate market. A slowdown in daily purchases is the result of a price decline. As for whether this statement is correct, retail investors care about buying when the price is rising and not when it is falling. The slowing down of ETF purchases and the price decline are inevitable. However, we cannot just look at the surface. First, despite clear signs of bullishness, slowing down at new highs, there are some strong signals indicating that we may see a mid-term correction. According to the news flow, this may happen more or less suddenly. The dominance of BTC will rise, and altcoins will fall. Secondly, despite the halving of production, it is expected to continue to adjust, with a potential target of 61.8%. The low point of the large wave retracement is over $50,000, where there is a large amount of leverage to be liquidated. The bull market has not ended, it is just resting. After experiencing a trend of only rising for a year, this retracement is acceptable.

Overall summary: After considering all the views, I believe everyone is also confused. After reading other people's evaluations of the overall market fluctuations and trends, it is even more difficult to draw conclusions. I don't know if everyone has a clear understanding of the future trend after reading the article, so I will directly give you the conclusion. With the later listing of ETH, it will definitely bring an upward trend to the coin circle. Although it is still in a period of retracement in the short term, for the medium and long term, the downward trend may receive some salvation. After shorting in the short term, try to focus on the long side later. Especially during the critical listing period, do not easily attempt short positions. Currently, although it is in a wide-ranging consolidation range, the impact of major news and the level of funds can be seen in the accumulation of funds and market trends. There may be a trend in the near future, and a big market is about to come. Everyone, get ready to enter the market!

Being in the coin circle is also considered to be walking with the consensus. Thank you all for your support for the coin circle over the years. Whether it's profit or loss, we have all crossed mountains and seas over the years. Investment experience: In the coin circle, understanding the way to survive in the long run can truly achieve success. Otherwise, everything is just a passing cloud, and no matter how much profit you make, you will give it back to the market in the future. When the clouds disperse, you will understand the true essence and connotation of investment! Investment is about making your own money, making money that you understand, rather than hoping to seize every opportunity and make all the profits. The money in the coin circle is endless, but it can be lost completely.

This material is for learning and reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

Original text by Li Zhongyi. Please contact the author for deletion if there is any infringement.

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