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Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop below 60,000 last night, which is in line with our expectations. In our previous analysis, we believed that it would be difficult for the 4-hour pullback to drop significantly at once. If it broke below 60,000, it would likely drop to around 59,000 to 60,000 and then quickly recover. Currently, it seems to be consistent with our recent predictions.

Last night's sharp drop caused panic among many traders. Some even believed that if it fell below 60,000, it would immediately drop to 55,000, 50,000, or even as low as 48,000. However, I still believe that since Bitcoin has been undergoing daily pullbacks in a oscillating manner, it is unlikely to drop too deeply. Firstly, the structure does not favor a deep decline. Secondly, fundamentally, the altcoin market has already experienced a significant drop before the halving, and the short-term emotional impact of the halving is not significant. Additionally, the recent sharp decline in the altcoin market has already achieved the goal of shaking out weak hands and liquidating contracts. There is no reason for a strong bull market to continue to experience a sharp decline. Finally, there is news that a Bitcoin spot ETF is about to be listed in Hong Kong, which will attract funds from Asia.

Therefore, as we have been emphasizing recently, for those who have the means, it's best to wait for Bitcoin to drop to 60,000 or below and then buy the dip. For those who do not have the means, it's best to stay put. Personally, I have recently added some funds and continue to buy the dip.

Regardless of the short-term fluctuations, it cannot stop the next wave of upward momentum towards 100,000. Until the upward trend ends, being overly bearish is not as good as being bullish.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1H:

On the 1-hour chart, the recent 4-hour decline has completed five waves, and last night's sharp drop has rebounded today. Currently, it is holding above 62,000. If it does not drop below 60,800 in the short term, there is a chance of a direct rebound on the 1-hour chart. If it breaks through 64,500, it will be almost a 4-hour rebound.

Overall, it is likely that a 4-hour rebound will start soon. So, if there is a pullback in the next few days, it's a good opportunity to go long. However, it's not ideal to chase the rebound once it starts. Typically, after a daily or 4-hour decline, the initial rebound strength is relatively weak, and repeated oscillations may make it feel like it won't go up. At this point, it's not very stable to chase long positions. When everyone thinks it will continue to decline, it may suddenly rise strongly.

Therefore, it's best to enter long positions during the pullback process at relatively low points, rather than chasing it when you see a strong bullish candle on the 15-minute chart.

15M:

Looking at the current trend, let's see if it can further rebound to above 63,500 tonight. If it falls below 60,800 again, it is very likely that Bitcoin will once again pull back to around 60,000 or 59,000.

In terms of operations, it is not advisable to consider chasing the rise directly. For spot trading, it can be bought in batches, while for futures trading, it's better to observe and wait for another pullback. For example, if Bitcoin falls below 60,000 again, there's no need to wait for an opportunity to go long. It requires decisive action because opportunities for continued probing of the bottom will not always be available. Alternatively, wait for a rebound and enter when there is repeated oscillation at a certain position where it doesn't go down.

ETH

My original expectation for Ethereum was another pullback to around 2,850, but it did not reach that level last night. If it continues to fail to break through 2,900, then the third 4-hour decline for Ethereum may only pull back to the previous low point. The structure of Ethereum's 4-hour decline is also almost complete, and there is a possibility of a short-term 4-hour rebound. If it can break through 3,270 again, it will confirm a 4-hour rebound.

On the 15-minute chart, staying above 2,950 indicates a potential rebound on the 1-hour chart. If it falls below, it may pull back to around 2,900 or below.

Similarly, in short-term futures trading, if you can't wait for a pullback opportunity, wait for a chance to go long during continued sideways consolidation.

Altcoins

Many altcoins did not drop significantly last night when Bitcoin fell, indicating that the previous round of decline in altcoins has basically been retraced. As previously predicted, some altcoins will not drop back to the previous sharp drop position, while some weaker ones may retest the low point from April 13.

In reality, for some altcoins, the position of the sharp drop on the 13th is the low point, so there is no need to panic excessively. It is believed that within a month, the altcoin market will rise again. The next daily uptrend in Bitcoin will lead to funds flowing into altcoins. Let's wait and see.

Trend Direction

Weekly Chart: Upward trend, currently continuing the rebound from 15,476. Pay attention to the subsequent daily trend to determine when it will end.

Daily Chart: Upward trend, there is a certain probability that the daily pullback has ended, but it cannot be confirmed at the moment. We can only judge based on the strength of the 4-hour rebound in the near future.

4-hour Chart: Upward trend, about to start a 4-hour rebound. Whether it can break through 69,000 is an important observation point.

1-hour Chart: Upward trend, holding above 60,800, there is a chance of a 1-hour rebound to around 64,500.

15-minute Chart: Upward trend, if it does not fall below 60,800, continue to be bullish. If it falls below, look for a pullback to around 60,000 or 59,000.

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This article is time-sensitive. Pay attention to the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

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