Lao Cui said: CPI and non-farm payrolls will also cause a downturn in the cryptocurrency market?

CN
1 year ago

The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui Shuo Bi, focusing on the analysis of cryptocurrency market trends, striving to deliver the most valuable market information to the majority of coin friends. Welcome the attention and likes of the majority of coin friends, and refuse any market smokescreens!

Many friends have asked Lao Cui about how to view the CPI data next Wednesday night. It can be said that the recent overall environment is becoming increasingly unpredictable. The current estimated inflation data has already reached 3.4, and if this continues to break through, it will cause unimaginable consequences. Lao Cui's fluctuating idea is, if the CPI data is the same as the non-farm data, does everyone think the CPI data will still cooperate? If the CPI data is the same as the non-farm data, does it mean that the US will have to raise interest rates? (This sentence is purely mocking) For those with a little common sense, just look at the recent trend of crude oil. Based on the trend of crude oil, it will definitely break expectations for COI again.

If the Fed's interest rate cut is as it appears from their published data, it is almost as if they have no intention of cutting interest rates. The key point is that the overall growth cannot be stopped, and the US bond yields continue to rise. All these roads have already forced a dead end, so what can be done now? Especially with the significant decrease in electricity consumption in the US in the previous quarter, the manufacturing industry unexpectedly showed strong recovery. Lao Cui couldn't help but wonder, are we returning to the agricultural era? Even as a billionaire himself, he recently went to borrow money from poor relatives, and all of this is unreasonable. It can be said that the data published by the US has strongly conflicted with our underlying logic, and in the end, we can only doubt whether the US data is problematic. If the US economy is strong, they wouldn't need to borrow money, and gold and crude oil wouldn't skyrocket, and the overall market wouldn't become so uncontrollable. If the US manufacturing industry is really as the data suggests, then their inflation would have long been eliminated.

Especially in the non-farm data, there were an additional 303,000 people, 70,000 in healthcare, 70,000 in government departments, 50,000 in leisure hotels, and 40,000 in the construction industry. The proportion of these, surprisingly, does not include the manufacturing and construction industries, which makes Lao Cui wonder, how did you manage to suppress your inflation? With such luxurious data, why not raise interest rates? We can follow the US data to see that if all the data is true, then the current market, gold should be falling, crude oil should be falling, and the coin circle should also be falling. However, the current market performance is contrary to the US data. This can only mean that the US itself is suspicious. It can be said that the release of non-farm data has almost had no impact on the coin circle. This also includes all the traditional markets mentioned above. It can be said that the landing of each of the US data will have an impact on the coin circle, but all the recent data has not had a substantial impact.

The announcement of the interest rate cut did bring a wave of growth to the coin circle, but as the heat dissipates, it has now returned to the value before the interest rate cut (it has not actually cut interest rates, just announced that it will cut this year). When the data loses credibility, it is a decline in the credibility of a country, and the US is indeed on a downhill path. So the question of how the US CPI announcement will affect the coin circle can be temporarily set aside. Currently, the US data will at most have a medium-term impact on the coin circle for about 7-15 days, and for spot users, it can be ignored. Also, in our judgment of the coin circle market, it is still within our plan, and the overall performance is still in the range of fluctuations.

Let's talk about spot users. For those who entered Ethereum at 3200, the high points of the oscillation will continue to rise, so don't worry about gains or losses of a few hundred points. Oscillation is for short-term trading, and for Ethereum, profits above 500 are very easy. For spot users, if the effective profit cannot reach 500, it is the same as a 5000-point profit in Bitcoin, and these conditions cannot be met, which means losses for investors. Inability to expand one's own profits is to magnify one's own risks. Similarly, for users with low capital, they are players in contract operations. Due to the recent volatility, they cannot achieve the nature of short-term profits, and even encounter losses, so they should reflect on whether their way of operation is problematic. It can be said that the trend of the entire range and the prediction of the trend are written very thoroughly in Lao Cui's articles. If one cannot profit, it is one's own operational problem! ------ If you have it, improve it; if you don't, add more effort!

Lao Cui's message: Investment is like playing chess. Masters can see five steps, seven steps, or even a dozen steps ahead, while those with lower skills can only see two or three steps. The high-level players consider the overall situation, plan for the big picture, and do not focus on individual moves or territories, but aim for the ultimate victory. The lower-level players fight for every inch, frequently switch between long and short positions, and only fight for short-term gains, often getting trapped in the process.

Original article created by public account: Lao Cui Shuo Bi. If there is any infringement, please contact the author to delete.

This material is for learning and reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Buying and selling based on this material is at your own risk!

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