Master Chat Hotspot:

Currently, the market in the Asian time zone is greatly affected by the trading of US ETFs. Even on Monday night, ETF funds saw a net outflow of $85.7 million, resulting in panic selling of Bitcoin in the past few days.

However, the ETF saw a net inflow of funds the night before last, although the inflow was only $40 million, the confidence in the Asian session has clearly improved.

The overall market rebounded slightly during the day yesterday, and in the evening, the market rebounded from a low of 64493 to 66900. This also indicates that the ETF fund inflow and outflow situation in the US session has begun to guide the trend of the Asian session's currency market, so the ETF must be particularly focused on in the future.

In addition, Wood Sister's ARKB ETF funds have once again seen outflows, for the second consecutive day. It seems that Wood Sister is not only selling stocks of CB and Robinhood, but now even starting to sell BTC, which is not a good sign.

Fortunately, Grayscale GBTC only saw an outflow of $81.9 million, and BlackRock increased its position by $150 million, covering the selling pressure from these two, otherwise the price of Bitcoin would have plummeted towards 60,000 today.

So I believe that the core driver of the recent market trend is still the ETF. In the previous cycle, Grayscale Fund bought BTC, and in this cycle, ETF institutions are buying BTC, which is somewhat different: after Grayscale Fund buys BTC, it will not redeem, and users can only trade the corresponding asset shares.

If they expect a decline, they will sell at a discount, and if they expect an increase, they will buy at a premium. However, the asset shares of the ETF correspond to the price of BTC and can be redeemed for spot, so theoretically, the ETF can help to increase and suppress the price of Bitcoin.

Although the spot market is currently trading "quietly," the volume of derivatives is huge, and many primary market projects invested by Wall Street institutions involve significant interests, so Wall Street's control of BTC's ETF only requires a small amount of spot trading to control the price of BTC.

This is very conducive to harvesting leeks, and harvesting leeks will inevitably create huge fluctuations. Wall Street is not so kind as to keep pulling the market up in a straight line. The halving in 2024 and the Fed's interest rate cut should be the source of volatility. Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations in each halving market, and the Fed's interest rate cut in June may also cause significant macro disturbances.

Master's Trend Analysis:

BTC: The current price of the market is still below the 1-hour level 100MA moving average, and a bearish trend line has formed on the hourly chart, with resistance near $66,400.

The next major resistance is at $66,600. If the price breaks through the $66,600 resistance area, Bitcoin will start a new round of upward movement. This will lead to an increase to the Fibonacci retracement line near 0.5, and the main resistance in the later period will be near $68,750.

If Bitcoin continues to rise, it may potentially push the price back up to the resistance area near $70,000 in the short term.

However, if Bitcoin fails to break through the $66,600 resistance area, it may continue to decline. The immediate support is near $65,200, and the support below can be referenced at $64,600 and $64,000.

If the closing price is below $64,000, the price may continue to decline to $62,500.

The 1-hour MACD indicator is currently accelerating in the bearish zone, and the RSI is below the 50 level. The main support levels for the day can be referenced at $65,200 and $64,500. The main resistance levels can be referenced at $66,600, $67,000, and $67,950.

ETH: Ethereum rebounded near $3370 last night, then fell back after being pressured, and rebounded near $3280 for the second time. The current price is unable to effectively break through the $3380-3390 area to form an upward movement.

Even if there is a breakthrough during the day, the key resistance above at $3440-3460 is also a recent key resistance and the turning point of the previous high and low, which is also the starting point of the weekly level.

The retracement at the weekly and daily levels has not ended, and the rebound strength last night was limited and did not reach the $3380 area. The intraday resistance can be focused on near $3350, and the support below can be focused on near $3270 and $3230.

4.4 Master's Short-term Pre-set Orders:

BTC:

Long near $64600-65000, target $65900-66200

ETH:

Long near $3200-3240, target $3300-3325

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you need to learn more about real-time investment strategies, untangling, spot contract trading techniques, operational skills, and candlestick knowledge, you can add Master Chen for learning and communication, hoping to help you find what you want in the currency circle. Focusing on BTC, ETH, and altcoin spot contracts for many years, there is no 100% method, only 100% going with the trend; daily updates on macro analysis articles across the network, technical indicator analysis of mainstream coins and altcoins, and spot mid-to-long-term replay price prediction videos.

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