AICoin
I. This Week's Preview:
April 1st (Monday): Final value of S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March in the United States; Manufacturing PMI for March in the United States; Month-on-month construction spending in the United States for February; Hong Kong and European stock markets closed for Easter Monday; ProShares' submission of five leveraged Bitcoin spot ETF applications becomes effective;
April 2nd (Tuesday): Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes of March monetary policy meeting; Final value of Manufacturing PMI for March in the Eurozone; 22:00 JOLTS job openings for February in the United States; Final value of month-on-month durable goods orders for February in the United States; Ethena to airdrop ENA tokens to users;
April 3rd (Wednesday): 2024 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Daly, participates in a fireside chat; Year-on-year initial value of CPI for March in the Eurozone; Unemployment rate for February in the Eurozone; ADP employment figures for March in the United States; Final value of S&P Global Services PMI for March in the United States; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March in the United States; Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries' ministerial monitoring committee; Wormhole announces the start of airdrop claims;
April 4th (Thursday): Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at the 2024 Business, Government, and Society Forum at Stanford Graduate School of Business; Challenger job cuts for March in the United States; European Central Bank releases minutes of March monetary policy meeting; Initial jobless claims for the week in the United States; 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Harker, participates in a fireside chat; Hong Kong A market closed for the Qingming Festival holiday; Zeus Network launches public offering and provides additional rewards for Launchpad voters;
April 5th (Friday): President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Barkin, speaks; President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Mester, speaks on economic outlook; Reserve Bank of India announces interest rate decision; Year-on-year retail sales for February in the Eurozone; Unemployment rate for March in the United States; Non-farm payroll employment change for March in the United States; President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Barkin, speaks. A-share market closed for the Qingming Festival holiday. Decentralized AI interaction protocol Wayfinder will airdrop Command Prompt Keys for governance.
April 6th (Saturday): Preseason Phase 2 snapshot ends at 16:00 on April 6th. MerlinSwap will discuss the allocation of the remaining 16% airdrop voting rights.
II. Key News Recap in the Cryptocurrency Industry:
Data:
This week, the cryptocurrency market has seen a series of noteworthy data. Tether once again made a move, purchasing 8,888 bitcoins worth approximately $630 million, demonstrating the long-term optimism of large institutions towards cryptocurrencies. In addition, the total market value of stablecoins grew by over $8 billion in March, with USDE supply surging by 194.9%. Bitcoin's on-chain NFT sales in March exceeded $500 million, setting the second-highest monthly sales record to date. These data indicate that the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of rapid growth.
Projects and Platforms:
Tokens such as DYDX, SUI, and GAL experienced a one-time large-scale unlock, releasing a total value of up to $2.24 billion. Ripple has become a focus of the market. Facing a hefty fine from the U.S. SEC, Ripple may sell over 3.1 billion XRP to pay the fine, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the price of XRP. Meanwhile, Ripple also announced two technological advancements for XRPL, demonstrating its continued investment in technology research and innovation. On the other hand, Coinbase reported recent selling pressure on GBTC, possibly related to the liquidation of bankrupt assets by Genesis, sparking market concerns about risk management at cryptocurrency exchanges.
Macro Policies and Regulatory Aspects:
The cryptocurrency market also faces a series of new challenges and opportunities. Fidelity notified nine ETF companies of upcoming new fees, a policy change that may have a certain impact on the ETF market. Meanwhile, the United States and the United Kingdom are investigating $20 billion cryptocurrency transfers from Russian exchanges, demonstrating the potential of cryptocurrencies in cross-border payments and the regulatory attention they are receiving. In addition, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman on interest rate cuts reflects the regulatory authorities' cautious attitude towards the cryptocurrency market. On the legal front, a U.S. judge has allowed the SEC to continue charging Coinbase for failing to register as a securities business, and the SEC plans to seek a hefty fine against Ripple Labs, highlighting the importance of compliance and regulation in the cryptocurrency industry.
Institutional Research Reports and Perspectives:
Several well-known institutions and researchers have expressed their views on the cryptocurrency market. Glassnode pointed out that the current behavior of Bitcoin prices closely matches previous cycles, which may indicate an upcoming change in the market. Coinbase Research predicts a rise in Bitcoin in the second quarter, providing important reference for investors. At the same time, some researchers have also pointed out potential risks and challenges in the cryptocurrency market, such as Crypto Quant's mention of a seller liquidity crisis. In terms of institutions, Grayscale stated that the cryptocurrency market is in the mid-stage of a bull market, while the CEO of BlackRock believes that even if cryptocurrencies are classified as securities, launching an Ethereum ETF is still possible. These perspectives provide investors with diverse angles for consideration, helping to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the development trends and prospects of the cryptocurrency market.
III. Community Interaction and Sharing:
Regarding Tether's purchase of 8,888 bitcoins on April 1st at 1:21 am, worth approximately $630 million. The total holdings amount to 75,354.08 bitcoins. The last purchase was on December 31st, also 8,888 BTC, valued at $380 million. Tether began purchasing bitcoins in September 2022, with an initial purchase of 33,980 BTC. Since then, the company has continued to acquire bitcoins every quarter.
Based on the purchase time and total value, we can roughly estimate the purchase cost to be around $70,480-70,882 per bitcoin. In addition, the total amount of $630 million far exceeds the recent daily net inflow of ETFs, indicating that Tether's purchase this time is driven by major players without considering costs.
IV. Important Events, Data, and Interpretation:
Regarding data, DEX trading volume reached $267.938 billion in March, setting a new record.
Our research institute believes that the total DEX trading volume reached an astonishing $267.938 billion in March, not only breaking the historical record but also increasing by 126% compared to February. This data strongly indicates that the DEX market is experiencing an unprecedented period of prosperity.
Decentralized trading platforms have gradually gained favor among investors in recent years. Compared to traditional centralized trading platforms, DEX offers higher transparency and lower counterparty risk. With the continuous development and popularization of blockchain technology, the advantages of DEX are becoming increasingly prominent, attracting more users and funds.
From a market perspective, the surge in DEX trading volume signifies growing investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. As the global economy recovers and digital transformation accelerates, cryptocurrencies as emerging digital assets are gradually gaining wider recognition and application. In addition, the prosperity of the DEX market also reflects strong investor interest in DeFi, further driving the development of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.
However, the prosperity of the DEX market also brings certain risks and challenges. With the increase in trading volume, DEX platforms need to address more complex technical and security issues. At the same time, due to the lack of effective regulatory mechanisms, the DEX market also faces legal risks and compliance issues.
Looking ahead, with the continuous maturity of DEX technology and the expanding market, there is reason to believe that the DEX market will continue to maintain strong growth momentum. However, caution should be exercised when participating in DEX trading, paying attention to risk management and compliance issues.
V. Institutional Perspectives and Overseas Views:
One, This Week's Preview:
April 1st (Monday): Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell below key levels, with the sell-off possibly due to a lack of liquidity in the market during the Easter holiday. Broker FxPro's analysis suggests that Bitcoin falling slightly below $69,000 is a consolidation phase after the rise, an important stage before a new round of growth. However, some false starts have been observed, so it's best to wait for confirmation that Bitcoin has the ability to rise above $71,500. Bitcoin needs a catalyst to firmly surpass the peak of around $70,000 or set a new all-time high. The correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market implies that broader market catalysts are also crucial. The Dow and S&P 500 indices themselves are at record highs, and a large amount of economic data will be released this week, which may increase expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts. This macroeconomic outlook is important for Bitcoin.
LMAX CEO discussed the future of Bitcoin and the impact of the surge in demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs in a recent CNBC interview. Mercer stated that if BTC becomes a standard portfolio allocation, with 3% or 5% of the world's population's portfolios or assets allocated to Bitcoin, we will see a significant price increase. This is purely based on supply and demand, and we have never seen such a situation before. You should see the price of Bitcoin being several times what it is now, and it will definitely be in the six figures, not just the five figures. When commenting on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the subsequent interest in cryptocurrencies, David Mercer stated that this means that even high-net-worth departments, such as private wealth departments of banks, can now offer products that allow users to directly access this asset class. I believe that over time, as all institutions become more accustomed to the behavior of the asset class, you will see people getting closer to the asset itself and owning core assets, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana.
Data shows that 76,179 bitcoins worth $5.41 billion have been transferred from Coinbase and Binance over 44 consecutive days. As of Sunday, March 31, 2024, Coinbase and Binance collectively manage approximately 1,570,863 BTC, worth $111 billion, accounting for 7.98% of the total circulating supply of 19,669,399 bitcoins. This means that these two platforms are key custodians in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. On February 16, 2024, Coinbase's 1 million bitcoins were worth about $52 billion, with a BTC price of $52,000 each. According to the latest data, Coinbase's Bitcoin reserves have decreased to 928,743 BTC. This decrease indicates that Coinbase has lost 71,257 BTC due to customer withdrawals or other types of transactions since February 16. Similarly, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have also decreased, although not as much as Coinbase. According to on-chain data, Binance's withdrawals have reduced the BTC from 647,042 to 642,120 since February 16.
Andrei Grachev wrote that although the total market value of the crypto market is slowly rising (up 16% month-on-month), spot trading volume is decreasing (down 44% month-on-month). Overall, more and more cryptocurrencies are being traded and distributed to holders who are waiting for events that could bring significant volatility, such as the Bitcoin halving. This is an interesting phenomenon.
Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased over the past week, and the largest quarterly delivery in history has released a large amount of margin, but the main term IV has not shown a significant decrease, and Dvol remains high. Dvol faces significant downward pressure, and the main term option IV, led by medium-term and short-term option IV, is likely to gradually decline. In the crypto interest rate market, large holders on Bitfinex are continuously increasing leverage, and the green leaf interest rate market is becoming active again.
Six, Top Gainers and Community Hot Coins Selection in the Crypto Market Last Week:
CORE performed particularly well in the past week, with a staggering increase of nearly 1.9 times, showing strong upward momentum. The GHST coin also showed a decent increase of about 132%, demonstrating the continued release of its market potential.
At the same time, RVN, QRDO, CEL, ANKR, SNM, and other coins also showed varying increases of 40% to 70%, further boosting the overall market heat. Other coins in the list also ranked high in terms of gains, providing potential trading opportunities.
This week, it is advisable to continue monitoring these top gainers, seize the opportunity to switch market hotspots, and find more investment opportunities. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and rationality should be maintained when participating in trading, with risks being controlled reasonably to avoid blind following. Additionally, it is important to pay attention to market dynamics and adjust investment strategies in a timely manner to respond to market changes.
Matrixport's report states that as a wave of altcoin activities enters the market, cryptocurrency trading volume has surged since early March. Expectations for the Ethereum Dencun upgrade and low transaction fees have sparked this frenzy, and some political developments have pushed cryptocurrencies to the forefront of political elections. However, with the decrease in trading volume, the sustainability of the rise in altcoins is being questioned.
Seven, Attention to Negative Data from Project Token Unlocks:
This week, tokens such as DYDX, SUI, and GAL will experience a one-time large unlock, releasing a total value of $224 million.
This week, we need to pay close attention to the potential negative effects of a series of token unlocks. Based on market analysis and research, it is expected that the unlocking of these tokens will exert downward pressure on their prices. Therefore, from a risk management perspective, it is advisable for investors to temporarily avoid these tokens in the spot market to mitigate potential losses. In the futures market, opportunities for short hedging should be sought, and through reasonable position allocation and operational strategies, profits from the price decline of these tokens can be obtained. Especially for DYDX, due to its large unlock magnitude, we should pay even more attention and closely monitor its market dynamics and price trends.
Eight, Top Gainers in Concept Sectors in the Crypto Market Last Week:
In the past seven days, BSC, Bitcoin Shanzhai, RWA, Huobi Eco Chain Heco, and social communication sectors have all shown significant upward trends and are leading in terms of gains.
First, as one of the leading blockchain platforms, BSC's efficient performance and wide range of applications have attracted a large influx of funds, driving its price increase. The rise of sectors such as Bitcoin Shanzhai reflects the overall positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market. Although Bitcoin, as the leading cryptocurrency, has high price volatility, BCH has gained favor from investors due to its unique technological advantages and market positioning. Additionally, the rise of RWA, Huobi Eco Chain Heco, and social communication sectors also indicates market attention to innovative projects in different fields. Most projects in these sectors are forward-looking and innovative, capable of bringing substantial returns to investors.
Nine, Global Market Macro Analysis Overview:
In the U.S. stock market, all three major indices achieved five consecutive monthly gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices setting new record closing highs, demonstrating the strength of the U.S. stock market. However, individual stock performance has shown a differentiated trend, with the stock prices of tech giants such as Tesla and Apple falling, while companies like Nvidia and Google have seen price increases. In terms of popular Chinese concept stocks, most stocks have risen, but some have experienced significant declines. This may be related to factors such as company performance, market environment, and investor expectations.
The market's focus this week includes important economic indicators such as the U.S. non-farm payroll data, an OPEC+ ministerial meeting, speeches by Fed officials, and the release of Guizhou Maotai's financial report.
The Hong Kong stock market continues to be closed today, which will have a certain impact on the trading activity of related markets. Several European countries have implemented daylight saving time, resulting in an hour earlier trading time for European stock markets and the release of economic data.
Ten, Future Market Judgment:
Since mid-March, BTC has rebounded from a low near $60,775 to a high near $71,770, and has since maintained a narrow range of $68,360 to $71,770, in line with our prediction twenty days ago that the overall correction would last for a long time. Intraday prices have fallen, breaking the short-term uptrend line within the recent range, and it is currently necessary to pay attention to the gains and losses near $68,360 to confirm future strength or weakness. If it remains above this level, the recent rebound will be maintained, with resistance above at around $73,780 and the historical high. If it falls below $68,360, it will re-enter a correction cycle, with support below at $63,770 and $60,775.
The Bitcoin halving is approaching, with less than 20 days remaining. Based on the historical trends of the previous two halvings, there have been significant pullbacks during this period, which we need to guard against and pay attention to. However, this halving is significantly different from the previous one, as it is overlaid with the impact of ETFs, resulting in a trend of setting new highs ahead of expectations, which may to some extent consume the positive effects of the halving. We have discussed this several times before, so we won't delve into it further here. Last week, BCH experienced a significant rebound due to the halving, which is in line with our previous position prediction in the community. It is also important to note that rebounds usually do not have good sustainability and are generally caused by speculative funds, so if there are significant profits, it is advisable to take profits in stages according to resistance levels.
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Old Li Mortar
April 1, 2024
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