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It's a good thing that Bitcoin has stopped falling and is oscillating. The fact that it has stopped falling and is oscillating means that it won't experience a major drop. The market has stabilized, but many "indescribable" things have happened. It's about 20 days away from Bitcoin's halving, but the market has become increasingly anxious, afraid of a major drop, and afraid of missing out.

The halving of Bitcoin is a major positive for the cryptocurrency circle, but because there was a significant drop 312 days before the last halving, many people are worried about a major drop. The fundamental reason for the anxiety actually stems from a cognitive deficiency. People are unable to judge the current trend, the stage they are in, and what each candlestick represents at the moment. They are just hearing various voices in the market and becoming increasingly confused. Bitcoin has risen from $15,487 to $70,000, but many people still dare not believe that the bull market has arrived, or rather, they dare not believe that the market will not experience a major drop. However, the fact is that the market has bottomed out at $15,487 and has been moving very healthily up to now.

During a bull market, the market will not always rise; there will be pullbacks during the process, which is certain. But we cannot blindly wait for a major drop when we see a pullback. Bitcoin rose to $25,000 and then pulled back to $19,800, then rose to $31,000 and pulled back to $25,000, and then dropped from $50,000 to $38,000. In fact, each pullback is an opportunity, but opportunities are only for those who are prepared. If you cannot discern the trend and think that there will be a major drop with each pullback, or if you see a rise and expect a drop to get in, but cannot identify the signal to stop the drop and greedily wait for a further drop, it is impossible to seize the opportunity. This will only lead to missing opportunities time and time again.

Now many people see that the market is not rising or falling and are starting to "calm down," and their mindset is improving. They believe that they must wait for the right time to enter the market, but they do not know what the signal for the "right time" is. In my opinion, the only "right time" for the lambs is when the market is rising. Only after it rises do they think the right time has come and then chase after it, but it is very easy to have an accident when getting on board midway. Buy when no one is interested, sell when there is a lot of buzz. If you understand this saying thoroughly, you will avoid many detours.

Let me say this: I think the top of this round for Bitcoin is probably above $120,000, so I think we need to consider selling in batches and escaping the peak when Bitcoin exceeds $120,000. Above $150,000 is, in my opinion, the maximum limit for this round. In other words, when the market exceeds $150,000 in the future, I will consider selling most of my positions and waiting for the bear market. As for Ethereum in the long term, I personally think that selling in batches above 10,000 U.S. dollars is conservative, and selling most of the profits when it hits the limit above 12,000 U.S. dollars and waiting for the bear market.

I am good at macro forecasting and micro trading of BTC and ETH. When you see an opportunity, don't just analyze it; taking the first step is the most important. After becoming a disseminator of financial information, I hope that more people can learn to make money through me, see money-making opportunities, and achieve good results in reality!

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