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Today marks one week until the end of March, with Bitcoin's halving countdown at 31 days. The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant fluctuation last week, with a net outflow in Bitcoin spot ETFs. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, while the Swiss bank lowered them, and the US dollar continued to strengthen, which is also one of the factors contributing to the cryptocurrency market's correction.
Looking back, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates multiple times over the past two years, leading to adjustments in global capital flows. Capital has flowed into the US from other countries, promoting the appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies. This rate cut will have a more widespread impact on the global economy. In summary, the Fed's decision to cut interest rates will have an impact on the global economic trend.
According to data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow for four consecutive days, with a total net outflow exceeding $1 billion. At the same time, analysts at JPMorgan Chase stated that based on indicators, BTC is still in an "overbought zone" and may drop to around $42,000 after the halving.
The halving is currently expected to take place on April 23. Based on historical experience, the Bitcoin halving cycle generally consists of four stages:
Stage One: Market rebound, violent surge
Stage Two: Market overheating, multiple corrections (occurs one or two months before the halving, with an 18% correction in January and a 14% correction in March this year)
Stage Three: Market calm, re-accumulation (in the months after the halving, many investors may lose interest or become disappointed with the market trend, and may exit directly if the halving rally does not immediately generate profits)
Stage Four: Parabolic rise (based on historical trends, after Bitcoin breaks through the oscillation range of re-accumulation, it will start the next round of parabolic rise, which may last for about six months)
These are some of the patterns before and after the Bitcoin halving in history. Although we cannot predict the future results, we can look for clues from past performance.
In addition, Bitcoin recently hit a historical high of $73,787.1 and has been in continuous correction for 11 days. I believe this period also requires a process of consolidating indicators. It is expected that the outflow of ETFs will weaken next week. Currently, nine spot Bitcoin ETFs (excluding Grayscale GBTC) manage 474,363.55 BTC.
Among them, the Baldr IBIT leads with a holding of 242,829.94 BTC. Next is Fidelity FBTC, holding 135,741.06 BTC. Overall, the cryptocurrency market in the last week of March may also bring some surprises, including my recent successful trading with members, which can be considered a great achievement for March. Choice is greater than effort, and opportunities are for those who are prepared.
3.24 Master's Short-term Pre-buried Order
BTC Operation Suggestions:
Long near 63600-63900, target 64800-65200
ETH Operation Suggestions:
Long near 3270-3300, target 3360-3380
More strategies can be added to the live account
Candlestick is king, trend is emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC, ETH spot and contract for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% trend following. Daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web! Image Friendly reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen in the public account (as shown in the image above). The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author. Please discern carefully between true and false. Thank you for reading.
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