News
On March 16, Craig Salm, Chief Legal Officer of Grayscale, posted on social media that they had submitted a revised Form 19b-4 to the SEC to advance the application process for converting ETHE to an Ethereum spot ETF.
On March 16, according to data from Farside Investors, the net inflow of Belad IBIT was $139 million yesterday, and the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF on March 15 finally reached $198 million.
On March 16, JPMorgan (JPM) stated in a research report on Thursday that institutional investors and individuals have been buying gold and Bitcoin (BTC) this year, rather than switching between the two as some analysts had assumed. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou indicated that speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds, including momentum traders like CTA, have also been driving the rally by purchasing gold and Bitcoin futures, possibly on a larger scale than retail investors. Since February, Bitcoin futures positions have sharply increased by $7 billion, and gold futures positions have increased by $30 billion.
JPMorgan analysts also stated in the report that the risk of mean reversion appears to be high, indicating that these two assets may fall back to average levels.
Market Review
Yesterday, the market fell by nine percent, reaching a low of 65588. The support mentioned in my article was just at the lowest point. After hitting the low, the market did not turn back. Around 3 am, it surged towards the resistance, reaching a high near 70700, in line with the expectations in my article. Profits were close to 5000 points. At the same time, the opening price on the hourly chart was below 70300, leading to another surge, with profits of over two thousand points. As long as you follow the operation, there are generally thousands of points in profits. So after the violent rebound, how should we operate in the market?
Market Analysis
Macro Analysis: The Coinbase Premium maintained a positive premium during the last decline. During yesterday's decline, it dropped below zero, reaching -0.1%. If the premium remains negative during the rebound, it may signal a shift in the position of this US institution. At the same time, the BTC market share has dropped for the first time since Bitcoin, from over 55% a few days ago to 53.27%. Now, similar to the logic of the previous bull market altcoin season, it is a bull market driven by institutional demand, with the Bitcoin halving narrative and ETF inflows expected to drive continuous rise in Bitcoin before the halving, followed by profit-taking after the halving. It is expected that the altcoin season will start around mid-April, around the time of the Bitcoin halving. This stage is when everyone is happy, after all, not many people hold BTC. Let's talk about which altcoins with 10x potential you hold, and I will use the profits from the contract to ambush a few!
Looking at the four-hour chart, the high point of yesterday's rebound was near the previous support level. There was a top-bottom transformation, leading to a situation of hesitation after the first attempt, but it did not go straight down, instead forming a oscillating pattern. This indicates that the market is relatively undecided, and there are no clear signals yet. Although the weekly chart shows a suspicion of a top around 73800, it cannot be ruled out that it is a bull trap, especially since most altcoins have not caught up yet. Continuous major positive news is still needed, and at this stage, it is only a phase of correction for better takeoff. From a technical perspective, the MACD is still in the process of recovery, and the RSL is hovering at the bottom. Therefore, it is expected that there may be continued oscillation over the weekend, with the upper range of attention at 71500-72000 and the lower support at 66800-66300. The low point of yesterday should not be broken. If it is broken, there is a chance to find support around 63000-61000, and the same applies to the upside, breaking through to see new highs. Specific real-time operation guidance will be provided.
Technology is the method, and the trend is the king. The dominant force in the currency circle will take you soaring in the sea of coins.
Be cautious when entering the market, as there are risks in operations.
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