Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | jk

Recently, the activity in the Bitcoin ETF market has attracted widespread attention from investors. Many products such as BlackRock's IBIT, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's GBTC, Fidelity's FBTC, and Ark Invest/21Shares' ARKB have all exhibited complete volatility on exchanges. As Bitcoin continues to rise and the crypto market enters a bull market, the trading volume data of major Bitcoin ETFs has become an indicator of market sentiment.

Odaily Planet Daily has been continuously tracking the relevant data of Bitcoin spot ETFs. It can be seen that in recent days, with the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, there has been a large influx of funds into ETFs, completely overshadowing the net outflow of GBTC. At the same time, with the growing enthusiasm for purchases, the amount of Bitcoin held by major management companies has also surged. James Butterfill, Director of Research at CoinShares, stated that the net inflow of funds into digital asset ETFs/ETPs this year has exceeded $12 billion, breaking the historical record of net inflows of $10.6 billion for the entire year of 2021, and it has only been one quarter into the year.

At the same time, several new highs have been achieved in the data related to Bitcoin ETFs: The position of the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has reached 223,645.98255 BTC (exceeding 1% of the theoretical maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoins), with a market value exceeding $16 billion, setting a new high; on March 12th, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States reached $1.05 billion, setting a new high for single-day net inflow since the launch of the ETF, an increase of approximately 56% compared to the previous high point (single-day net inflow of $673 million on February 28); the total market value of Bitcoin ETFs (including spot and futures ETFs) is $60.143 billion, and the total assets under management (AUM) are $55.374 billion.

Data Overview

Daily trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Source: The Block

The chart covers the entire trading volume of newly approved Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past month. It can be seen that since the end of February, when Bitcoin skyrocketed from around $50,000, the daily trading volume began to rise, with IBIT from BlackRock reaching the highest (blue part in the chart), followed by GBTC in second place (green part in the chart), which is estimated to be mostly profit-taking by investors, as investors concerned about management fees may have exited shortly after approval. Fidelity's FBTC ranks third.

Market share of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Source: The Block

In terms of market share, it also corresponds to the proportions seen in the trading volume: there was a significant decline from mid-February, with VanEck's HODL share gradually increasing; however, since then, IBIT has regained the first position, followed by GBTC in second place, and FBTC in third place, with smaller players like Ark following closely behind. After the bull market, the market share of IBIT from BlackRock has seen a significant increase, rising from around 33% to around 45% from the previous level.

Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $11.828 billion since their launch. Among them:

• IBIT has seen a cumulative net inflow of $12.027 billion;
• FBTC has seen a cumulative net inflow of $6.703 billion;
• BITB has seen a cumulative net inflow of $1.431 billion;
• ARKB has seen a cumulative net inflow of $1.9705 billion;
• GBTC has seen a cumulative net outflow of $11.4026 billion.

From this data, it can be seen that the momentum of net inflows has clearly overshadowed the net outflows from Grayscale that appeared when the ETF was just approved, with the net inflow from IBIT alone already covering the outflow data from GBTC. Based on the daily flow data, it looks like this:

Total net inflow data of Bitcoin, Source: The Block

It can be seen that in the single-day net inflow data over the past month, there were only a few days of net outflow, and the magnitude was small. At other times, the entire market has been in a net inflow state, and the issue of whether GBTC would sell off significantly and impact the price has rarely been mentioned.

According to the on-chain analyst Yu Jin's statistics, the total holding of BTC in the ten spot BTC ETFs has exceeded 800,000 coins, accounting for 3.8% of the total BTC supply. Grayscale (GBTC) has seen its share in the ten spot BTC ETFs drop to below 50%, with BTC holdings falling below 400,000 coins. The influence of Grayscale (GBTC) on the market has been diminishing. The holdings of BTC by BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) have already reached 320,000 coins ($23.1 billion), and are about to surpass Grayscale (GBTC).

Furthermore, there are currently two theories about the relationship between Bitcoin spot ETFs and the spot Bitcoin price: whether the inflow of funds into ETFs has driven up the price of Bitcoin, or whether the increase in the price of Bitcoin due to other reasons has led to the inflow of funds into ETFs. It is clear that the two are complementary, but there is still no definitive conclusion to this "chicken or egg" type of question. Looking at the timing, the increase in Bitcoin price and trading volume both began around February 26th, and the difference is very small, making it difficult to draw a conclusion based on timing. However, in a bull market, if the growth rate of ETF data slows down, it may indicate that the investment enthusiasm of investors attracted by the current bull market has been excessively consumed, or it may signal a temporary peak.

Taking an overall view of the current trend in the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs, from the fluctuations in various data, we can catch a glimpse of the subtle changes in investor confidence and market heat. Although the future market performance is full of uncertainty, by closely tracking these key data, investors and analysts can better understand the market trends and seize investment opportunities. The performance of Bitcoin ETFs will continue to be a focus of observation for Odaily Planet Daily.

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