Master, let's talk about the hot topics:

Powell made a speech last night: interest rate cuts will depend on the economic trend, and it may be appropriate to cut interest rates at some point this year. The Fed needs to have more confidence in inflation before cutting interest rates. If the economy develops as we hope, interest rates will need to be significantly reduced in the coming years.

There is no reason to believe that the economy is currently or facing significant near-term recession risks. The strength of the economy and the labor market means that we can handle the issue of interest rate cuts cautiously and thoughtfully. I believe we can achieve a soft landing.

Regardless of what Powell says, at least the market has taken "it may be appropriate to cut interest rates at some point this year" as the focus. As long as interest rates are cut, it is good news for the market, especially for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Currently, it's just a matter of an ETF approval, and the cryptocurrency market will enter a bull market. Therefore, in the second half of the year, with the halving and interest rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market will have a high level of enthusiasm and prices.

To be honest, the speed of this bull market has exceeded everyone's expectations. Based on the experience of previous bull market cycles, Bitcoin has always reached its previous high after the halving. This early achievement is likely due to the approval of the spot ETF and the accelerated entry of Wall Street institutional funds. After all, this is the biggest variable change in this round of bull market compared to the past.

Moreover, in the past two days, some media reports claimed that the market panic was caused by the sale of 1,000 bitcoins mined in 2010. I don't think this should be the main reason, after all, the value of 1,000 BTC is less than 70 million, while the trading volume of the spot ETF has exceeded 10 billion US dollars. It wouldn't cause such a drastic drop in prices.

I looked at the data of forced liquidation the night before last, and almost all long positions were wiped out. The amount of forced liquidation exceeded 1.2 billion US dollars, and this form of shaking out has two advantages. First, after removing leverage, the price becomes more stable, and there are not so many profitable positions. Second, it can lower one's own cost again and reduce the profits of arbitrageurs, which is more favorable for creating new highs in the future.

In fact, before breaking through the previous high, Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced shaking out in the previous bull market cycles. After the price reached 19,800 in 2020, it also plummeted by nearly 3,000 US dollars. It then repeatedly shook out for 12 days before officially breaking through. Looking at the trend last night, it seems very reasonable. My expectation is that we will naturally see Bitcoin starting with a "7" in two weeks.

MicroStrategy founder: Spot Bitcoin ETF is competing with the S&P 500 index and will surpass the gold ETF in the future. I also firmly believe that this day will come. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by 12,600 BTC yesterday, and its total holdings are close to MicroStrategy's. Traditional capital is strong, and it can accomplish in a few months what others have accumulated over several years.

In addition, the current level of funding rates is still too high. Long contract holders must be vigilant against the rapid decline of leveraged long positions. It is best to select some lower support positions when adding long positions. Currently, the funding rate has come down a bit, but the shaking out behavior will not happen only once; there should be several times.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Currently, the support level of the overall market can be focused on the range of 62,500-64,000. According to the current trend, as long as this range is reached, one can enter the market for trading. The upward space has gradually expanded after reaching the historical high, and the oscillating trend is very normal.

The first target level above is at 72,000. If this level is stabilized, I see 76,000-80,000 nearby. My overall target for this month is to look at the position near 80,000. Once again, I remind everyone that as the market price rises, the volatility increases, so those trading contracts should pay attention to controlling risks.

ETH's current support is focused on the range of 3,630-3,680, and the overall first target level above is around 4,000. After breaking through, pay attention to 4,200, mainly to see if it can stabilize at 4,200 and reach 4,500 to challenge higher positions. Once the market stabilizes at 3,600 this month, it has achieved my first target level for this month.

3.7 Master's Short-term Pre-set Orders

BTC Trading Suggestions:

Long near 64,000-64,400, defend at 64,000, target 65,100-65,600

ETH Trading Suggestions:

Long near 3,570-3,600, defend at 3,600, target 3,680-3,760

More strategies can be added to the live trading

Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend; daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web. Friendly reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen in the official public account (as shown in the picture above). The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are not related to the author. Please be cautious in distinguishing between true and false. Thank you for reading.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。