During the high-level consolidation period of BTC, it is easy to see the "copycat effect". In the past few days, PEPE has surged, and MEME has warmed up again.

Copycat refers to the speculation of new coins rather than old ones. In 2018, EOS replaced BTS, in 2021, SHIB replaced EOS, and in 2023, PEPE replaced SHIB, becoming the strongest MEME. Lao Lang found that it became the "king of MEME". The characteristics are as follows: deflation expectations, consensus community, and platform effects.

The reason why new coins are more popular than old ones is that the circulation is too small. It only takes a small amount of capital to push the price up. The scarcer something is, the more valuable it becomes. The mechanism of deflation often rises more than inflation. In the past, Vitalik Buterin did not agree with this view, believing that the more coins there are, the more people can use them. ETH adopted an inflation mechanism, and the result was that it was barely surviving in the bear market, falling much more than BTC. It wasn't until the upgrade to a destruction mechanism, transitioning from inflation to deflation, that it began to strengthen.

When it comes to consensus, many people think of CX. The project party also attaches great importance to the community, thinking that the more people buy, the more people talk, the price can rise. But Lao Lang believes that the key to measuring community consensus lies in data, not just the lively feeling.

On-chain data, the number of new addresses, FDV, and so on can all show the trend of consensus. The so-called consensus is value consensus, not just CX consensus.

Because someone uses it, everyone thinks that someone will buy it, the price rises, and more people are driven to use it.

The premise of use is that everyone can use it, and the premise of buying and selling is that everyone can trade. Therefore, the hot copycats will inevitably land on the hot platform. Only the top platforms can provide massive heat and capital. So in 2017, you could buy casually on Yunbi and it would rise. Last year, when Lao Lang talked about BRC20, you could only place orders on the website, and hardly anyone was buying and selling. It wasn't until OK launched the BRC20 section that the relevant currencies took off. So you can pay attention to the new sections on OK and BN, which are likely to create hot spot myths.

BTC:

The increase in holdings indicates that a big fluctuation is imminent. Frequent needling to complete the washing action. BTC retraced to the 5-day moving average and broke through the $64,000 mark. The key point of needling formed on February 29 is $64,056. Only a rapid rise and a breakthrough of $64,056 with volume can break the expected selling pressure formed by the divergence of the hourly chart and further strengthen the upward trend. Next, BTC will rise to test $64,056.

Resistance levels: $64,056, $65,127, $66,153

Support levels: $62,435, $61,592, $60,734

ETH:

Rising along the 5-day moving average, the bottom of the hourly chart continues to rise, indicating the existence of bullish support. The key point of the "M" pattern formed on January 29 is $3,505. Only by stabilizing at $3,505 can it establish a bottom and strengthen, opening a new round of upward movement. With a surge in volume, ETH will rise to test the $3,505 mark.

Resistance levels: $3,505, $3,533, $3,562

Support levels: $3,468, $3,327, $3,214

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