Master, let's talk about hot topics:

Last week, the United States released the PCE price index for January, which is the most important basis for the Federal Reserve to cut or raise interest rates. The data shows that the year-on-year core PCE data for January dropped from the previous 2.9% to 2.8%, consistent with expectations. The year-on-year broad PCE inflation for January also dropped from the previous 2.6% to 2.4%, also in line with expectations.

We can see that although both of these data points are within expectations, they have indeed decreased. Especially the 2.8% core PCE inflation data has moved further away from the Fed's 2% target, so this data can be seen as positive. As for the many media outlets focusing on the month-on-month increase, I don't think it's necessary. Firstly, this data is not the Fed's main consideration, and secondly, although it has increased, it is still in line with expectations, so it cannot be seen as negative.

After the data was released, the CME interest rate cut expectations have increased, with the main performance being a probability of more than 25% for a rate cut in May and a probability of more than 67% for a rate cut in June. Currently, CME's expectation for interest rate cuts for the whole year is 3-4 times.

BlackRock increased its holdings by more than 10,000 BTC last week, about $638 million, setting a historical record. It is said that this wave accounted for 40% of all ETF inflows at BlackRock, which is only 0.2% of the $10 trillion in funds managed by BlackRock. It is this 0.2% category of funds that has taken on nearly 50% of the increase in funds, so everyone should be able to see the extent of Wall Street capital's FOMO for BTC.

When we trade, we often pay attention to the ratio of TVL to market value. Usually, the higher the TVL of a project, the more valuable its market value. The traditional market is the same. For example, if BlackRock IBIT, with a 0.2% share, has taken on 50% of the increase in funds, then it means that the scale of IBIT is severely underestimated. Normally, a sector that can attract 50% of the incremental funds should account for at least 20% of the total funds.

This means that IBIT still has 100 times the incremental space. Furthermore, BlackRock manages funds worth $10.2 trillion. 20% is $2.04 trillion, while the total market value of Bitcoin is only $1.2 trillion. So, if BlackRock IBIT achieves its target, the market value of BTC will need to increase at least 5-10 times. At that time, the price of Bitcoin may reach a historically higher level, so the potential for BTC is very large.

After the weekend adjustment, BTC continues to rise, and it won't stop in March. Personally, I believe that if nothing unexpected happens, this month will see a new all-time high. Then it will continue to rise until the halving, and there may be the first round of adjustments after the halving. After the adjustment, the third and fourth quarters will continue to rise violently, reaching at least $100,000 by the end of the year.

At the same time, Wall Street giants are all frantically buying BTC. Currently, the daily output of BTC is 900. As long as the daily increase in holdings exceeds 1200 (five trading days) after the halving of Bitcoin, the supply and demand relationship will further tighten. The boom may not stop for the next 2-3 months, and there will be coin-related companies such as Ethereum ETF and the listing of the parent company of USDC in the meantime.

Master's Trend Analysis:

The overall market is once again reaching a new high, but there are not many new highs, just slightly above the previous high. Currently, the support is moving up, and on the four-hour level, attention is focused on the 62600-63000 range, with the upper range being 65000-66000 on the daily level.

This week, we need to pay attention to whether the overall market can go to the 68000-72000 range, which is the current short-term target. The upper space is currently expanding, and my main focus for this month is around 80000. If it goes up, we can see a $100,000 BTC.

On the daily level, the market for ETH is first looking at 3600, which is currently a key point for ETH as a whole. It is also a key target for this month from last month. Only by stabilizing at 3600 can the current trend open up the upper space. Expanding the upper space makes it easier to reach above 4000, which can then approach the historical high limit.

In addition, the support level on the daily level for ETH is focused on the 3420-3460 range, and everyone needs to be prepared for a defensive move. The upper range is currently being gradually pushed, and if the push fails, there may be another push after a drop.

Master's Short-term Pre-set Orders for March 4:

BTC Trading Suggestions:

Long near 63000-63200, defend at 300, target 63700-64000

ETH Trading Suggestions:

Long near 3430-3450, defend at 30, target 3500-3550

For more strategies, you can join the live trading.

Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend; daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web. Image Friendly reminder: Only the public account in the column (as shown in the picture) is written by Master Chen. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are not related to the author. Please be cautious and thank you for reading.

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