Master Chat Hotspot:

The recent market is continuously bearish on this year's interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a rate hike before May predicted by CME has dropped to only 30%. The interest rate options market is extremely pessimistic, and some investors have started hedging the risk of the Fed raising interest rates again.

Analysts attribute this to the increase in shipping costs caused by geopolitical factors, which may complicate the Fed's efforts to combat inflation, leading to the possibility of the Fed's decision not being solely focused on interest rate cuts. Future rate hikes are also possible, but the probability is relatively small, so we still need to be vigilant about the risk of policy shifts.

In addition, after three days of rest, the US stock market reopened, but the trend continued the downward trend of last Thursday and Friday. Especially the leading technology giants led the decline, with Nvidia plummeting 7% the night before, creating the largest single-day decline in history.

In the past two days, there has been an increase in selling pressure from Grayscale, reaching 2912 BTC, about $152 million. This may be related to Genesis's selling of GBTC, but the selling pressure has increased. Other ETF institutions have shown strong buying, and the net inflow yesterday was still as high as $135 million, although it has decreased compared to the net inflow of $400-500 million last week. However, as long as it is still positive, it indicates that the market still recognizes ETFs.

I remember at the end of 2021, Musk made a prediction that once the BTC ETF is approved, combined with the halving of Bitcoin production in April 2024, the price of Bitcoin at that time would definitely reach $100,000, and by the end of 2025, in the ultimate raging bull market, BTC would rise to over $300,000 (Musk's words, not mine). At that time, Bitcoin was just $15,000, and now looking back, it seems that Musk's prediction is coming true. Many people who missed out are now waiting for a crash or a black swan event, hoping that the market will drop back to $25,000 so they can buy the dip.

But black swan events do not happen frequently; having one within three years is already quite good. The most recent black swan event was the FTX exchange incident two years ago, which gave us the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at $15,000. If this bull market continues and the market keeps rising to $100,000, and Ethereum rises to $5,000, then those who missed out will only experience anxiety and continuous buying high and selling high.

I believe that regardless of whether Musk's prediction will ultimately come true, it doesn't have much impact now. Because the current market volatility and trading volume already exhibit the characteristics of a bull market, it's still good for fans and members to follow my short-term and medium-term contract trading and layout every day.

Master's Trend Analysis:

In the short term, we need to look at the 51,000 level for the market. If it can hold, there will continue to be oscillating adjustments. If it cannot hold, it will continue to test the support around 48,000. However, everyone should not worry too much, as the market has already lost the possibility of a major decline, and it will mainly oscillate and adjust before the halving.

In the short term, the market's resistance is at 53,000. I expect there will be a brief washout around this level, and of course, breaking through 53,000 is inevitable. Once it breaks through, it means it will start to challenge 60,000, and the market sentiment will further rise.

So personally, I still believe that the current overall trend is bullish and may see a significant rise. Because the current market belongs to a one-way institutional bull market, with large institutions and organizations taking over the selling pressure of BTC.

2.22 Master's Short-term Pre-set Orders

BTC Operation Suggestions:

Long near 50,900-51,100, defend at 300, target 51,600-51,800

ETH Operation Suggestions:

Long near 2,870-2,890, defend at 30, target 2,930-2,950

More strategies can be added to actual trading

Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% trend following; daily macro analysis articles and technical analysis video replays are updated across the network. Friendly reminder: Only the public account of the columnist (as shown in the image above) is written by Master Chen. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author. Please discern carefully, thank you for reading.

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