Daily Sharing
The overall trend of Bitcoin (BTC) is in line with our expectations:
Firstly, around January 20th, we pointed out that if Bitcoin fell below the 40,000 integer mark, it would likely continue to decline further. We predicted the first 4-hour decline to be in the range of 38,500 to 39,200, and it eventually dropped to around 38,555, which matched our prediction.
Secondly, around January 25th, we indicated the possibility of a second 4-hour rebound for Bitcoin, but it was not certain. If it broke through 41,500, we considered it a confirmed 4-hour rebound, with the expected target range of 43,500 to 44,000. The rebound eventually reached 43,882, perfectly meeting our expectations.
Lastly, in the past week, I have repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin's recent rebound is only a rebound within the daily downtrend, not a reversal.
Regardless of whether it is currently undergoing the third 4-hour decline, the viewpoint remains unchanged. The key point to note is whether 43,882 is confirmed as the peak of the second 4-hour rebound. This cannot be fully confirmed at the moment, unless the price directly falls below the range of 41,000 to 41,400. However, there is a probability of it ending.
After falling below 38,000, we need to observe while walking, and be ready to switch between long and short strategies in a timely manner, focusing on when to buy the dip rather than continuing to short. Remember, remember.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market situation at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.
1H:
On the 1-hour chart, a 1-hour decline is currently in progress. If the support near 41,400 holds, there will be a 1-hour rebound. We will then observe whether the next 1-hour rebound will break the previous high of 43,882 or directly form a second sell-off. See the blue arrows in the image above.
If the 1-hour decline directly breaks through 41,400, it will likely be a 4-hour decline, continuing to fall below 38,555. See the white arrows in the image above.
15M:
On the 15-minute chart, it is currently running the third 15-minute decline. If it falls below 41,800 without divergence, it may form a 5-wave 15-minute structure. Alternatively, it may rebound on the 15-minute chart, forming a 15-minute consolidation before extending downwards. Overall, if it falls below 41,400, it will be considered the start of a 4-hour decline. If not, we will first observe the strength of the next 1-hour rebound.
ETH
The structure of Ethereum (ETH) is relatively standard. The 4-hour rebound of Ethereum has completed an up-down-up structure on the 1-hour chart and is currently undergoing a 1-hour decline. If this decline falls below 2,250, it is expected that the 4-hour rebound of Ethereum will end and the third 4-hour decline will begin. If the 1-hour pullback does not fall below 2,250, we will first observe the strength of the next 1-hour rebound. The probability of the end of the 4-hour rebound here is increasing.
Trend Direction
Weekly Chart: Upward direction, currently a continuation of the weekly rebound from 15,476, pay attention to the subsequent daily chart situation for when it will end.
Daily Chart: Downward direction, currently undergoing a daily pullback, expected to last until the end of February or early March.
4-hour Chart: Downward direction, with a certain probability of ending the second 4-hour rebound and starting the third 4-hour decline.
1-hour Chart: Downward direction, currently observing the support at 41,400 for the 1-hour pullback.
15-minute Chart: Downward direction, observing whether the third 15-minute decline shows divergence or forms a 15-minute consolidation.
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The article is time-sensitive, so be aware of the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!
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