Master Chat Hotspot:
The outflow of BTC held by Grayscale continues to decrease, with only 4458 coins remaining. Based on the price of 43000, this amounts to only 190 million US dollars, once again creating a new low for selling pressure. Moreover, the daily outflow from Grayscale has been decreasing in a basically monotonic manner. The daily outflow in the past week was 6.41 billion, 5.15 billion, 4.29 billion, 3.94 billion, 2.55 billion, and 1.91 billion respectively.
On the other hand, BlackRock and Fidelity have net inflows of 2073 and 2383 bitcoins, respectively, basically covering the outflow from Grayscale. Additionally, the trading volume of Grayscale has been continuously decreasing in the past week. On Monday, the trading volume of BlackRock even exceeded that of Grayscale's GBTC. According to this trend, the trading volume of major ETF institutions tonight may overwhelm GBTC.
This means that Bitcoin will officially enter the era of net inflows for ETFs, and the continuous decrease in selling pressure from Grayscale should be the most direct reason for Bitcoin to return to the 43000 level.
As the price of BTC returns to an upward trend, major institutions have started a new round of bullish sentiment. Based on historical data analysis, the founder of Tianqiao Capital concluded that the conservative increase in Bitcoin's price in the coming months will exceed 300%. After the halving in April, the price of BTC will reach $170,000.
He also made long-term predictions for BTC, stating that the eventual price will reach $400,000, a tenfold increase in market value compared to now, approaching half of the market value of gold. Furthermore, based on the price reached at the end of April, he made predictions for the future of Bitcoin, stating that if the price reaches $50,000 in April, it may reach $200,000 within the year. If the price of BTC reaches $60,000 before the end of April, it will soar to $240,000 within the year.
The Grayscale holding address transferred 6227 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime and two other addresses last night. Among them, 4418.63 bitcoins were transferred to Coinbase Prime, and 1808.96 bitcoins were transferred to the other two addresses.
Currently, BlackRock has officially updated the holding data for its spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT. As of January 29, 2024, IBIT holds a total of 56,629.00780 bitcoins, with a market value of approximately $2,446,316,507.16.
Then, regarding the ETF for ETH, after Bloomberg predicted a probability of over 60% for approval in May, a US investment bank, TD Crown, gave the opposite opinion, stating that the approval for an ETH ETF may have to wait until the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. In fact, Ethereum currently needs an ETF, as various L1\L2 public chains are developing well and are vaguely seizing market share from ETH. Even now, SOL has challenged ETH at the consensus level.
Master's Trend Analysis:
The market has not yet stabilized at 43000, but currently, the market trend is entering a period of oscillation. The support level in the short term is around 42000. In short, the downward space in the short term is limited, and there is a greater probability of oscillation behavior.
At the same time, it is crucial to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US monetary policy press conference in the early hours of Thursday, as well as the major non-farm payroll report on Friday. The timing is completely overlapping, so the turning point will likely occur on those two days.
Furthermore, ETH needs a spot ETF to prove itself, to differentiate itself from other altcoin public chains. The recent trend of ETH is relatively weak, which is likely due to all ETFs being postponed and the pessimistic sentiment among industry insiders.
1.31 Master's Short-term Pre-buried Orders
BTC Operation Suggestions:
Long near 42500-42700, defend at 300, target 43200-43500
ETH Operation Suggestions:
Long near 2300-2320, defend at 30, target 2350-2380
More strategies can be added to actual trading
"Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend. I update macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos daily across the web. 
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