Master, let's talk about hot topics:
Last Friday, the United States released the PCE inflation data, which is the target for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Especially the year-on-year core PCE, which the Americans have been talking about to bring inflation down to 2%, refers to this data. This time, the core PCE inflation rate recorded 2.9%, which is lower than the expected and previous value of 3%. This can be considered a positive sign, and the inflation in the United States has officially entered the era of starting with 2.
Looking at CME's forecast for interest rate cuts, firstly, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday will keep interest rates unchanged, which is almost certain. However, the probability of an interest rate cut in March has slightly rebounded after the release of the PCE data, rising back above 50%. The interest rate cut starting in March can be said to be a major event that the financial markets are eagerly anticipating.
Next, let's talk about the buying and selling situation of Grayscale and other ETF institutions last Friday. As I predicted last week, Grayscale did reduce the selling pressure on Friday, with the net outflow decreasing from $400 million on Thursday to $255 million. Meanwhile, other institutions continued to buy as usual, with Fidelity buying $100 million in a single day, and BlackRock also receiving nearly $90 million in inflows. The total inflow of funds from various institutions reached $269 million, exceeding the $255 million of Grayscale's sales.
ETFs are back in the era of net inflows. This should also be the main reason for the general rise in the market over the weekend. In addition, apart from JPMorgan's article last week inferring that the Grayscale GBTC selling pressure has ended, over the weekend, Needham analysts also judged that the GBTC redemption has slowed down, and the selling of FTX bankruptcy assets and arbitrageurs has basically ended. Then let's continue to talk about the Ethereum ETF. Bloomberg analysts predict a 60% chance of ETF approval in May.
As of January 29, 2024, the number of bitcoins held by Grayscale was 496,573.8166, with an asset management scale (non-GAAP) of $21,431,132,778.35 and 555,700,100 shares in circulation.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest purchased 58,468 shares of ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF on January 29, equivalent to approximately $2.457 million at the closing price yesterday.
Master's trend analysis:
I mentioned yesterday that if the market can stabilize above 43,000, it will continue to rise. Currently, it seems to have stabilized at the 4-hour level. If it can hold the position at 43,000 in the next two days, then the market will remain optimistic.
The market is currently in the range of impact. On the intraday level, pay attention to the support level around 42,600, and the upward space is currently looking at the 44,000-45,000 range. The key point to watch this week is whether it can stabilize at the crucial point of 45,000, as tomorrow is the monthly closing, which also needs to be observed.
Master's short-term pre-buried orders on January 30:
BTC operation suggestion:
Short near 43,700-43,900, defend at 300, target 43,200-42,900
ETH operation suggestion:
Short near 2,320-2,340, defend at 30, target 2,280-2,250
More strategies can be added to actual trading.
Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contract for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% follow the trend; daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web. Image Friendly reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen in the official account (as shown in the picture). The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are not related to the author. Please distinguish between true and false carefully. Thank you for reading.
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