Confirmation of Jupiter's coin issuance time, can it replicate the wealth creation miracle of JTO?

CN
1 year ago

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | Azuma

Jupiter's Coin Issuance Time Confirmed, Can It Recreate the Wealth Miracle of JTO?

Last night, meow, the co-founder of Jupiter, a leading trading aggregation protocol in the Solana ecosystem, updated the latest progress of the Jupuary plan on X platform and officially announced that the TGE time for JUP has been confirmed to be 10:00 on January 31st, Eastern Time (23:00 Beijing Time).

As another hot project in the Solana ecosystem, Jupiter's airdrop has been heating up since the beginning of the Breakpoint period in early November last year. Today, after experiencing the collective surge in the Solana ecosystem and the earlier execution of the wealth miracle of Jito (JTO) with the airdrop plan announced at the same time, the community's expectations for the JUP airdrop continue to rise.

So, can JUP really recreate the story of JTO? We can make some simple speculations based on some existing public data.

In early December last year, Jupiter had already launched a website for querying the JUP airdrop quota (https://airdrop.jup.ag/). Users who have interacted with the Jupiter protocol in the past can now query the amount of JUP airdrop they can receive through this website. According to feedback from the community, users who have interacted with the Jupiter protocol can basically receive a "minimum guarantee" reward of 200 JUP, and some users with more interactions have stated that they have received thousands of JUP in airdrop quotas.

Jupiter's Coin Issuance Time Confirmed, Can It Recreate the Wealth Miracle of JTO?

According to the disclosed token economic model design of Jupiter, the total supply of JUP is 10 billion.

Previously, meow had tentatively disclosed the TGE mechanism of JUP, with the following preliminary plan:

  • First mint 10 billion JUP;

  • Divide the 10 billion JUP equally into two cold wallets in a 50:50 ratio (belonging to the team and the community, respectively);

  • Extract 10% from the team wallet for providing liquidity;

  • Extract 15% from the community wallet for the initial airdrop and early community activity needs.

meow added that the team wallet is expected to initially use 5% of the share for building initial liquidity, and the use of the remaining share has not been determined yet, but on the first day, an additional 1-2% of the share may be used for liquidity. In summary, it is expected that 15%-17.5% of the tokens will enter circulation on the first day of TGE, 10%-7.5% of the tokens will be in hot wallet storage, and 75% of the tokens will be in cold wallet storage.

Now let's highlight some key information: JUP total supply of 10 billion, initial circulation of 1.5 to 1.75 billion.

Currently, Aevo has launched JUP's pre-launch contract trading, with the price currently at $0.64, reaching a high of $0.85 and a low of $0.48 in the past month.

Jupiter's Coin Issuance Time Confirmed, Can It Recreate the Wealth Miracle of JTO?

  • Odaily Planet Daily Note: The pre-launch contract on Aevo has large fluctuations and low trading volume, which has some reference value but does not completely represent the real market price after TGE.

Based on the real-time contract price on Aevo, the post-issuance fully diluted valuation (FDV) of JUP is approximately $6.4 billion, and the real-time circulating market value (MC) is approximately $960 million to $1.12 billion.

Next, we can compare the above data with similar leading protocols within Ethereum. It is important to note that, considering Jupiter's current business landscape (aggregation + contracts + DCA, etc.), it is difficult to find a project that is completely identical to its business type. Therefore, we have decided to use 1inch (1INCH) and Uniswap (UNI) as comparison objects based on their main business (trading aggregation) and race positioning (DeFi services).

According to CoinGecko data, 1INCH's FDV is $690 million, with an MC of $520 million; UNI's FDV is $6.74 billion, with an MC of $5.08 billion.

Jupiter's Coin Issuance Time Confirmed, Can It Recreate the Wealth Miracle of JTO?

From the perspective of FDV, it can be seen from the above comparison that JUP is approaching UNI and far exceeds 1INCH, which may indicate that its current contract price of $0.64 may be somewhat overvalued. However, considering that JTO had previously staged a comeback in terms of FDV against the leading Ethereum ecosystem Lido (LDO), and the proportion of initial circulation of JUP and JTO is quite similar, it seems that the current price of JUP from the perspective of MC also seems to be somewhat reasonable.

Due to the divergence in valuation logic, JUP airdrop users may choose to take different actions—users who believe that JUP still has room for appreciation can continue to hold after the airdrop, while users who believe that JUP is overvalued can choose to hedge on Aevo (there is a risk of liquidation) to lock in the airdrop value in advance.

Finally, it is worth noting that in addition to the TGE of JUP itself, meow also mentioned in the update of the Jupuary progress that there will be two experimental coin issuance tests before JUP, one is the mockJUP to be issued tomorrow, and the other is a meme coin to be issued next week (meow specifically emphasized that it will be a true meme coin).

This may be another opportunity outside of JUP.

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