This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate according to this, you will be responsible for the gains and losses.
Beijing trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.
The long-awaited spot ETF for the big cake is finally approved and will start trading tonight.
In the article on January 4th, Beijing mentioned the speculation—will long-term holders take this opportunity to sell? And will there be incremental funds in the market to pick up these sales? This will gradually become clear in the coming period.
The repeated tugging in the past few days, and the far exceeding of the intraday volatility compared to the past, have already driven many short-term speculators out of the market. What remains is the real incremental funds and the impending departure of some long-term investors. Since it is a game, there will be processes and repetitions. It is not very realistic to continue to rise rapidly. The grayscale ETF has not started trading yet. In the grayscale fund, there are not only profit-making investors who bought around 20,000 in 2020, but also a large number of arbitrage traders betting on "discount return" in 2023. A large part of these positions will be actual selling pressure in the future.
As a representative of the concept stocks in the cryptocurrency circle in the US stock market, the trends of Coinbase and MicroStrategy are also weak. They have already peaked in advance. The following chart is the stock price chart of MicroStrategy. From the candlestick chart on the 3rd, it can be seen that the MicroStrategy stock price rebounded to a key Fibonacci position and then was blocked and stopped. And at the top of the price, there is a volume trend, and it has already broken through an upward trend line. Coupled with the cashing behavior of MicroStrategy's boss, it is expected that the MicroStrategy stock price is unlikely to reach a new high in the short term. Its stock price peaked in February 2021, two months earlier than the top of BTC.
Around 48,000 is also a Fibonacci resistance level for BTC, and it is also the high point of the rebound in April 2022. Taking all factors into consideration, the cost-effectiveness of continuing to buy BTC at the current price seems to be not high.
Relatively speaking, ETH is more cost-effective. In the article on January 6th, Beijing specifically reminded everyone to pay attention to the exchange rate of ETH, because the exchange rate at that time was already near a long-term support level, which looked very attractive from all aspects. From the results of the past two days, the trend of ETH is also in line with expectations. Its exchange rate reached the lowest point after the hacking incident, and then rebounded rapidly. In 2 days, it has risen by more than 20% compared to BTC. Since the current round of rise, the increase in ETH is still lower than that of BTC. However, looking back, there has never been a situation where ETH has underperformed BTC at the end of any round of market. Therefore, ETH still has potential. Looking at its own price, the resistance above is around 2800+ and 3300+. Even if the increase in ETH is consistent with BTC in this round, a price around 2800 should not be a problem.
If the BTC price can stabilize for a period of time, there may be more surprises for Ethereum. The cryptocurrency market rises and falls together, and it is difficult to stand alone. The result of the game between the long and short positions of the big cake determines the overall direction in the short term. For now, ETH is more cost-effective relative to BTC. It is basically dominated by the US stock market time now, and it is relatively boring during the day. Let's see how it goes at night.
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