Bearish on ETH/BTC, to be honest, I haven't always practiced what I preach…

A while back, Ethereum unexpectedly surged, and many people said I was proven wrong. I even posted a counterargument = =.

But in fact, I happened to make money and clear my position just before it rallied. I bailed when the short-term market didn't look good, and I haven't held the bearish position on ETH/BTC for long = =.

I remain firm in my belief that the exchange rate of ETH/BTC will fall.

The weekly candlestick closed below the support level, indicating a high probability of the trend continuing downward, making it difficult to reverse the decline.

We can also consider the fundamentals.

If Bitcoin's ETF is successfully approved, it's obvious that being long on BTC and short on ETH will be profitable. Let's wait and see if there will be expectations for an Ethereum ETF.

However, if the Bitcoin ETF fails to be approved, it's clear that this round of market movements is driven by ETF expectations. Disappointment in the market will lead to selling…

The key is who will be sold off more aggressively?

I have actually been worried that if the Bitcoin ETF is not approved, BTC will face the most direct and significant selling pressure. However, in this round of market movements since October, the altcoins have been extremely hot!

Due to the explosive growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem, just look at how many coins have increased by hundreds or thousands of times? There are even coins that have increased by tens of thousands of times!

Comparing it to the DeFi craze in 2019 and under DeFi in 2020, although the profit effect was strong, it seems that there was not such a significant wealth effect, and it was not dominated by just a few leaders like this time.

So, I think the atmosphere of this round far exceeds those previous stages. I believe we are still in the stage of "stock funds" switching to "incremental funds," and we have not yet reached the stage of completely new incremental funds entering the market!

We really have to wait for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF to talk about "institutional entry."

So, once the Bitcoin ETF really fails to be approved, the altcoins led by Ethereum will be the first to face selling pressure. Recently, Ethereum has been resistant to decline, but what about the other tokens in the Bitcoin ecosystem? They are all collapsing…

Therefore, from a risk perspective, shorting the ETH/BTC exchange rate is less risky than directly participating in long or short positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum!

Of course, I believe that 2024 will be the year when the Bitcoin ETF is approved, it's just a matter of time, and the main funds will also take the opportunity to stir things up and wash away~

Above.

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