Some reflection on doomer psychology, the market, investing, and what I'm planning to do in 2024...
My feed right now:
Doomer complaining about Christmas.
Doomer complaining about the Fed.
Doomer pumps "buy the rumor, sell the news" FUD.
Doomer says this market is too easy.
Doomer says 100bps of cuts isn't enough.
Doomer says current FFR will break economy.
Doomer says FedEx earnings spell "doom" for macro.
Doomer says resilient economy is a facade.
Doomer says blah blah blah.
Fun fact: Doomers will doom.
Even while stocks are making new YTD highs & all-time highs, and the indexes are drastically outperforming their average calendar year returns.
Doom, doom, doom.
Negativity, negativity, negativity.
Pessimism, pessimism, pessimism.
Some Doomers, after receiving criticism & accountability from their followers, are saying that they've participated in the upside this year, despite continuously casting doubt & aspersions onto this market. They've questioned the validity of this datapoint or that datapoint, or this trend or that trend, all year. Now they're saying "just because I've been doomposting doesn't mean I've been short or that I haven't been long".
Mate, then what are you even doing here?
What's the intention of your activity on this platform?
What's the purpose of exclusively posting about weakness and constantly alluding to crisis?
Hint: clicks & "glory" if/when shit hits the fan.
I hope all of you see through the BS because it's asinine.
I'm so passionate about this because most newcomers to the economy, the market, or FinX get allured by the fancy language, rhetoric, niche topics, and big words that these professionals intentionally use to captivate & earn authority.
It's exactly how I became enamored with Peter Schiff's ideas back in 2014-15 until I realized in 2017 that I was going down the wrong path and not actually performing.
If you're listening to Doomers, I WAS YOU.
Thankfully, I thought critically & independently in order to question "What is wrong with this Doomer thesis? What if it's incorrect... what are the flaws? What if everything turns out okay? Do these things even have a significant impact on market returns?"
Take a long hard look at yourself, reflect on the objective facts of how the market has performed over the past year, past 3 years, past 5 years, past 10 years, past 20 years, past 50 years, etc, regardless of the fundamental risks that are ever-present in the market and/or the economy.
Risk is a fact of life and it's a constant in the market as well.
You can't escape it, regardless of how hard you try.
Seriously, tell me one market environment that was completely absent of any macro, market, or geopolitical risk.
It doesn't exist.
If you focus on negativity, risk, and pessimism, what do you do? Stay sidelined? Short the market? How has that worked over the long-run? Hint: not well.
Let the Doomers doom, acknowledge the risks that they highlight (because they are valid), but stay focused on what you can control and also pay attention to the positive catalysts that are unfolding before your very eyes (because those are also valid).
Here's the long-term portfolio game plan that I've laid out over the past 2 years:
• 2022: sell rallies, raise capital, plan for allocation.
• 2023: increase exposure & buy great assets.
2024's theme will also be to buy assets & core portfolio holdings, but at a slower pace than 2023, and just letting the market do its thing. That might mean lower prices. It might mean higher prices. I don't know. What I do know is that I'll moderately increase my allocation to tradfi assets next year, by allocating remaining cash & also by re-structuring my existing allocations (reducing Treasury exposure steadily throughout the year in favor of equities).
Again, this will be a slow & steady process given that it's a long-term portfolio.
If the recession does come next year, I'll rapidly take profits on Treasury positions and begin allocating to equities at a faster pace.
Either way, yields will most likely be lower next year so there will be less of an incentive to own Treasuries, especially in the aftermath of a potential recession. I see fixed income slices as a piggy bank to buy equities.
All I know is that I'm 28 years old and I need to buy assets.
Specifically, I want to be a net buyer of assets every single year.
Read that again.
If you're under the age of 30, that applies to you.
If you're under the age of 40, that applies to you.
If you're under the age of 50, that applies to you.
If you're under the age of 60, that applies to you.
All that changes is your allocation mix, timeframe, and risk tolerance. As long as you have income, regardless of the risks that exist in the market, you should be buying dollar-denominated assets. It's really that simple.
The poor souls who have been sidelined this year have likely come to realize that there's a risk of NOT owning assets. Someone who bought any of the FANG+ names at the beginning of the year is likely up +30% to +100%. The losses that they would need to incur to wipe out those gains are huge, which could come during a recession, but they've now minimized their sequence of returns risk.
These sidelined investors have no one to blame but themselves and the analysis of the individuals that they follow, preaching doom at every stop along the way.
I wish them well.
I'll rely on my limited experience of being an investor for 10 years and my obsession with investing, macro, market dynamics, psychology, and the like. I live, eat, and breath this stuff, and it's been that way since 2013.
Maybe I'll be wrong. Maybe I'll be proven right.
But I'm going to do me and rely on the approach that has worked for me – buy great assets, be tactical in moments, be willing to change my mind, and BUY GREAT ASSETS.
If you want to know more about my outlook, read my pined post that covers macro, monetary policy and #Bitcoin specifically.
I'm gonna bounce for a few hours and walk along the Southern Italian coast. Also, gm.
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