Master Ye talks about hot topics:

There have been quite a few macro bullish events in the past few days. First of all, the collective dovishness of the Federal Reserve officials has strengthened the expectation that the Fed has already completed its rate hike. Even the newly crowned hawk, Waller, has indicated that if the work to lower inflation continues to make progress in the future, it may be possible to cut interest rates in a few months. At the same time, he also expressed increasing confidence in achieving the goal of lowering inflation to 2%, and the U.S. stock market saw a sharp rebound after Waller's speech.

Next, looking at the latest news on the BTC spot ETF, the SEC has postponed the review of the ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Hashdex. If I remember correctly, the deadline for the review of these two should be January 1, 2024, so this should be considered an early postponement. Franklin Templeton immediately responded by updating a new version of the prospectus.

After postponing the review of these two, the SEC stated that it hopes to receive public opinions, and the public's opinions on these two funds need to be submitted within 21 days. The SEC will also have a rebuttal period in the following two weeks. In other words, in December, the SEC should provide another explanation of the public opinions. In addition, the SEC will also respond to GlobalX's ETF application on December 22, so there is still a glimmer of hope for ETF approval before the end of the year.

Of course, the most likely time for approval is still between January 10 and 15, 2024. The review periods for companies like ARK Invest, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco are all within this range. In short, good things are never afraid of being late, and the spot ETF will definitely be approved in the end.

The data released last night showed that the third-quarter GDP was revised up to 5.2%, not only surpassing the initial value of 4.9%, but also exceeding the market's expectation of 5.0%. This is the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. It can be said that this is a very good data, far exceeding the "1.8%" level that the Federal Reserve believes will not cause inflation—this should significantly reduce the market's expectations of rate cuts for next year. However, the situation is not as simple as we imagine.

This report confirmed that inflation is trending downward. The third-quarter PCE price index, "the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve," was revised down to 2.8% year-on-year, and the third-quarter core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) was revised down to 2.3%. However, Wall Street believes that this report is already "in the past," reflecting the situation in the third quarter, and the situation in the fourth quarter is not good, especially with the first decline in retail sales in October in seven months. Goldman Sachs has already lowered its forecast for U.S. fourth-quarter GDP to 1.4%.

Yesterday, BlackRock once again met with the Trading and Markets Division of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and based on the staff's suggestions at the meeting on November 20, they presented the "revised" physical model design for the spot Bitcoin ETF. In the new model, an offshore entity market maker obtains Bitcoin from Coinbase and then pre-pays cash to a U.S.-registered broker-dealer (they are not allowed to handle Bitcoin).

Master Ye's Trend Analysis:

The overall market seems to have risen, but in reality, it hasn't. It's very difficult to stabilize above 38,000, and at least five attempts to rise have ended in failure. Currently, it can't rise, nor can it fall, so it can only consume time in exchange for space. Two days ago, stimulated by the macro bullish news, Bitcoin returned to the 38,000 point, and Standard Chartered Bank even directly promoted Bitcoin, saying that the crypto spring has arrived, and the market will reach $100,000 next year. However, it fell below that level again today, indicating that the market is currently in a stage of confrontation between long and short positions, and the market's capital is not as abundant as it seems.

However, just by looking at the candlestick chart, it is clear that there is currently some weak upward momentum, which is passive rather than active behavior. This has led to the current slow upward trend in the market. Since November 9 until now, although it seems to have been rising all along, it has not been able to reach a new high. Every time it approaches 38,500, it gets pushed back down. However, the market's confidence and enthusiasm are still there, so the decline will not go too far. This is the current trend.

Master Ye's Short-term Pre-buried Orders on 11.30

BTC Operation Suggestions:

Short near 38,100-38,300, defend at 300, target 37,600-37,200

ETH Operation Suggestions:

Short near 2,040-2,060, defend at 30, target 2,005-1,985

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Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Ye Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contract for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend; daily macro analysis articles are updated on the entire network, and technical analysis review videos.Friendly reminder: Only the public account of the column (as shown in the picture above) is written by Master Ye Chen. The end of the article and other advertisements in the comment section are not related to the author. Please be cautious in distinguishing between true and false. Thank you for reading.

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