Daily Sharing
Bitcoin has dropped below 37,000, so there is a high probability of at least a 4-hour decline, or if the momentum is strong, a daily level decline. Bitcoin has been rising for over 70 days, so a pullback is normal, and the long and short strategies need to be switched in a timely manner.
Next, we need to pay attention to the support at 34,800. If it falls below that, it is likely a daily level pullback. If it doesn't fall below, then we need to observe whether the subsequent 4-hour rebound shows a secondary sell-off.
Since Bitcoin is no longer safe, altcoins need to be cautious as well. The reason I favored playing altcoins spot instead of contracts recently is because Bitcoin is still in a daily rebound, which provides a safe environment for altcoins to rise. Although altcoins have fallen a few times along with Bitcoin, with Bitcoin hitting new highs again, many altcoins have continued to rebound. This is due to Bitcoin not reaching its peak on the daily chart, giving altcoins a window of opportunity. Now that Bitcoin's daily chart seems temporarily unsafe, a significant pullback for altcoins is normal, so be mindful of the risks.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.
1H:
On the 1-hour chart, the first 1-hour decline has not shown a clear signal of ending yet. We can first observe 36,800. If it falls below, we need to pay attention to the support around 36,000 to 36,300, and then expect a 1-hour rebound to around 27,300, followed by a third 1-hour decline. At that time, pay attention to whether the third decline falls below 34,800.
15M:
On the 15-minute chart, the 1-hour decline is extending. I thought it would be almost over this morning because the rebound in the morning had already pulled back to the center, but in the afternoon, it couldn't hold steady and instead fell below 37,000. So it's likely that the departure from the center on the 15-minute chart is not a divergence. First, see how far the departure on the 15-minute chart can go, and then there should be a third sell-off (not returning to above 37,600 is considered a third sell-off) to continue the 1-hour decline, so it's possible that this 1-hour decline will reach around 36,000. Specific details on smaller timeframes still need to be observed.
There are currently no clear long signals.
ETH
On the 4-hour chart, as Bitcoin is likely to have a 4-hour decline, Ethereum cannot stand alone and is likely to have a 4-hour decline as well. It's worth noting that Ethereum did not break below 2,136, so if the 4-hour pullback of Ethereum does not fall below 1,905, there is still a chance for another 4-hour rebound to new highs. If it falls below 1,900, we need to look for a daily level pullback.
On the 1-hour chart of Ethereum, this 1-hour decline is likely not over yet, with no divergence on the 15-minute chart. Pay attention to around 1,970 below, and then expect a second 1-hour rebound. If it cannot break through 2,060, there will be a third 1-hour decline. If the second rebound breaks through 2,060, it's possible to reach new highs again and then pull back.
Trend Direction
Weekly Chart: Upward, currently a continuation of the rebound from 15,476, when it will end depends on the subsequent daily chart conditions.
Daily Chart: Upward or downward, whether the daily rebound is over depends on whether 34,800 falls below.
4-hour Chart: Downward, there is a high probability of a 4-hour decline.
1-hour Chart: Downward, pay attention to 36,000 below.
15-minute Chart: Downward, it has been extending today. If the rebound cannot return to above 37,600, there will be a third sell-off.
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The article is time-sensitive, so be mindful of the risks. The above is for personal reference only!
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