Chen Bin's Point of View: 11.20 Easy to Attack and Difficult to Defend, Don't Chase the Rise, Bitcoin and Ethereum Rebound Resolutely Short!
The profit space is like two people pulling a rubber band, the one who gets hurt is always the one who is unwilling to let go. The market is not like Lin Daiyu, it won't be charming because of sadness. When the pants lose the belt, you will understand what dependence is. When the oscillation breaks the range, you will understand what a one-way move is! Keeping a warm and curious attitude towards the candlestick chart is not about making a profit every day, but about not missing every moment of eruption in calm days. The most regrettable thing in trading is giving up what should not be given up easily, persisting in what should not be persisted in stubbornly. Being able to pick up and let go is the way to survive in the market.
After Bitcoin oscillated in the range of 36500-36000 over the weekend, Bitcoin surged to 37500 again on Monday morning. The rebound in the Asian market seems strong, but it's not a big deal in the European and American markets, so don't chase after the rise in the morning. After several attempts to attack, it failed to break through! First of all, from the daily chart, it is not difficult to find that after rebounding near the weekly MA5 of 34600 last Tuesday, it also rebounded twice last week in the 37500-37900 range and then retested the support of 35500, which is the double bottom support point I mentioned several times last week. Only if this level is broken can the decline accelerate! There have been four trading days of high and then fall so far. Although Bitcoin surged to 37500 again this morning, I expect that 37500-37900 should be a limit position. However, today's breakthrough of the previous highs at 36800 and 37200 has to some extent disrupted the pressure points of the downward oscillation. Although it did not refresh the previous high position, it also gives people a little hope and continues to excite the bulls. The most fearful thing for people is having too many thoughts, having reasons for both long and short positions, and the news in recent days has been mixed. Often, it is found that good news leads to a decline, while bad news leads to a rise, in fact, the market often borrows the power of news and follows the path of technology!
After the big rise, the oscillation correction replaces it. After touching the daily MA5 position on the weekend, it continues to stay above the MA5, but the 5 and 10 moving averages are turning downwards, and the MACD is also bearish. The current daily chart pattern and the morning surge make me not optimistic about the continuation of the bull market. Don't let the previous day's rise or fall affect today's judgment. It is not the only measure. The upper resistance remains unchanged in the 37500-37850-38050 area. I suggest focusing on short positions above 37500! Don't rush to chase after the morning, the current pattern does not support a big rise immediately. The greater probability is, as I said before, the high-level oscillation rebound is just to continue to attract bulls and then come with a heavy blow! The Asian market will not have too much volatility, and impulsiveness often leads to passive trading in the European and American markets. Remember, you can choose not to trade, not to participate, but don't be constantly impulsive! However, the support at the 36800 position on the daily chart today must be paid attention to, but direct upward attack is definitely weak! I have been emphasizing dealing with high-level oscillation rebounds and continuous rebounds to test the top. Today's upward probing closing makes me think that a one-way move will come soon. The brewing time has come to the point of eruption. After the morning rebound, it is expected to go short directly in the European and American markets. The support has now moved to 36800-36400, and the weekly MA5 has also moved to 36300. Breaking through will open a new round of decline!
Although there was a rebound in the price today, the death cross of the 5 and 10 moving averages and the MACD indicator in the chart seem to favor the bulls on the price, but are bearish on the indicators. In addition, there is strong pressure above 37500, so this rebound will not continue today. The probability of a short-term breakthrough of 38000 is very small. It is expected that there will be a small rebound during the day, but a large-scale rise is difficult. Don't rush to chase after missing out on the long position last night!
I have repeated many times recently about Ethereum. The last surge to 2130 basically marked the end of this bull run. Don't fantasize about Ethereum breaking through 2200 or 2300 in the short term, just short the rebound! Although Bitcoin rose during the day, Ethereum did not change much overall, repeatedly consolidating around 2000, and the rebound is also a lackluster market. However, the price is running below the moving average, and even if there is a rebound, the 2050 resistance has become the key position for this rebound. The moving averages are turning downwards, and there is still a low point expected. The area around 1910-1900 below needs attention, which means that shorting Ethereum will continue to be the main focus for the rebound in the day, and the high-level oscillation is brewing for a decline. Although 1900 has support for now, it is not enough to change the weak situation of Ethereum.
November 20th Operation Plan:
Short Bitcoin above 37500! The bull market is at its end! In the 37500-37900 range, lay out short positions in batches, stop loss at 38300, short-term target is 3600-35500, and hold if it falls below 34800-33000.
Don't expect Ethereum to surge, just short it on the rebound! Short Ethereum at 2020-2030 today, stop loss at 2072, target 1900-1850.
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