Chen Bin's Point of View: Bitcoin and Ethereum's Rise on November 16th Won't Defy the Trend, Firmly Lay Out Short Positions Near 38000!
The market is like a bus. The one you are waiting for never comes, while the ones you don't wait for always come one after another. Trust is a kind of mindset and also a manifestation of ability. Defeating oneself is often not about the market, but about oneself. Having a good mentality is not about being happy when you find money, but about still having a good mentality when you lose money. The discovery of anything is a good thing. People with trading phobia are like carrying two watches on their hands but never knowing the time. Extreme behavior comes from vanity, mediocre behavior comes from habit, and narrow behavior comes from fear. The good luck a person possesses is accumulated kindness and blessings, as well as the experience of the vicissitudes of life, which will only make you a stronger person. Some people entering your life is an enlightenment, while others entering your life is a lesson!
Recently, overall, Bitcoin is in a purely bullish market. Since October 11th, there has been no significant pullback midway, rising from 26600 to 38000 in a month, an increase of over $10,000. This also indicates the decline of the US dollar index, the waning of risk aversion sentiment, and the speculation surrounding the ETF resolution, leading to a sustained large increase for a month.
However, Ethereum has not shown much movement recently. Bitcoin has surged to a high point of 38000, while Ethereum has been maintaining a relatively bottom rebound. Although there has been an increase in the past few days, the magnitude is still far behind compared to Bitcoin. The price difference between the two is quite large. Many people have not kept up with the rise of Bitcoin and planned to lay out positions in Ethereum to make up for the missed opportunity of the bull market, but the results were not satisfactory, especially for those trading contracts who inadvertently chased the high and experienced a market fluctuation of one or two hundred US dollars, just like the situation a few days ago.
Now, in terms of Bitcoin, the bulls surged to 38000 in the early morning today. Yesterday, the importance of the 36400 range was emphasized. After this range was broken, those shorting should stop loss and abandon their short positions. If they want to short again, they should wait for another rise before shorting. After the breakthrough in the early morning, it rose to near 38000, and after the strong breakthrough, there was a morning pullback, mainly due to the strong pressure at the 38000-38500 level. I don't need to say much about this. 38000 won't easily break through, leading to a price decline and a new trend brewing, exchanging time for space. Of course, we have re-entered the short position near 37900 in the morning.
Bitcoin surged to near 38000, touching the 4-hour upper rail position, which is also close to the previous high point. The previous decline was at 38000 as the pressure point, and the recent trend is expected to continue with another decline based on this boundary. In terms of operation, shorting at the high position is the main strategy now! Another point is the decision on the spot ETF, don't think too much, it won't be approved, at least not in the short term. If it is approved now, what manipulation will there be in the future? And there will be a reduction in BTC production in April next year! Now, the pressure is concentrated at the upper level, with the 38000-38500 level as the pressure point. Firmly short and expect a decline!
From a technical perspective: Bitcoin's weekly chart has recorded four consecutive gains. Yesterday, it rebounded near 34600 in the early morning and immediately touched the position of the weekly MA5, then rebounded. If it surges, I will continue to look for a decline. If it surges, I will continue to short at the strong pressure position! Since January 2023, Bitcoin has generally maintained a bullish trend. When I said to buy the dip and go long in the first half of the year, who believed me? Many people came to me and said it was a bear market and would continue to fall. Now, I say the bullish trend will end and we need to start preparing for a rebound and shorting, and many people come to me and say it will go to 41000, 42000, and surge to 50000! Including most people in the market now think so, right? Everyone is looking for a breakthrough of 40000 and waiting for Ethereum to catch up! It's already at 38000 and many people are saying the bull is here, the bull is flying, and it's awesome, it's going to 42000-50000!! In the short term, the market sentiment is bullish, but when everyone is forgetful, it is the moment when we need to be cautious. There will be adjustments in the near future, and intraday operations need to be handled with caution. There is no need to rush to chase long positions! I recommend shorting!
Recommendations for November 16th:
- If you didn't short near 37900 in the morning, then short directly at 37500-37700, and add to the position on the rebound! Stop loss at 38555, target 33500-31500
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