This week, the bearish forces in the market have shown strong performance, sweeping away the previous low atmosphere. A situation of a high opening gap occurred on Monday, followed by a continuous decline in the market until a rebound appeared around the 26530 level on Thursday evening. Although 27000 is a phase low point in the long term, it was not held during this round of decline, leading to a reversal. After the rebound was suppressed at this level, there was a retreat, falling to around 26500. After the market opened on Friday, the market fluctuated around the 26550-26960 level, showing a lack of upward momentum, waiting to fill the gap. The cryptocurrency price set a single-week decline of nearly 1500 points this week, nearly $1500 lower than last week's closing price, ending with a large bearish candle.
On Friday, the situation in the Middle East took a sharp turn for the worse, further escalating the tense atmosphere, impacting investor risk appetite. According to CCTV reports, the Israeli military has requested a million Palestinians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip, seemingly indicating an imminent ground military operation. The Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement that infantry units have entered the Gaza Strip for "local attacks." In addition, CCTV also reported intense clashes between the Lebanese resistance forces and Israel at the temporary border between the two countries. The escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East has driven the continuous rise in the value of safe-haven asset gold, becoming a major reason for the weak performance of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, with significant price fluctuations.
The trend of US bond yields may prompt the Federal Reserve to continue pausing rate hikes in November. After the minutes of the Fed meeting revealed internal divisions on rate hikes in September, it became clear that caution has become the consensus. Since the September meeting, the rise in US bond yields may replace the impact of the Fed's last rate hike. Once the rate hike stalls, the long-suppressed cryptocurrency will inevitably strengthen. It is important to note that the decline from historical highs is often influenced by rate hikes, making rate hikes one of the main causes of the overall decline in cryptocurrencies. Therefore, once the rate hike stalls, cryptocurrencies are expected to experience a cyclical rebound.
The current market sentiment is mainly influenced by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with multiple countries involved, making it difficult to resolve the conflict in the short term. This situation will to some extent affect cryptocurrency prices. In summary, the US dollar performs strongly in peacetime, while the value of gold and silver becomes apparent in times of war. In the current turbulent period, risk assets like Bitcoin appear relatively unstable compared to safe-haven assets like gold. Therefore, we need to continue monitoring the subsequent developments in the Middle East situation.
For next week's trading layout, the primary consideration is position management. In the current extreme market environment, strict position control is crucial. Reducing positions can effectively reduce risk, as any decision-making mistake could lead to serious losses. Therefore, risk management is our primary consideration.
On Monday, it is recommended to focus on the support levels of 26500-26300 on the market, and participate in long positions on retracements. The upper resistance levels to watch are 27200 and 27450, and there may be a pullback after reaching these levels, so short positions can be attempted. Specific layout arrangements should mainly rely on real-time reminders, paying attention to the opening strategy on Monday.
Determine the intraday range after allowing for some space. In a volatile market, price levels are key, while trends are secondary. The specific operation points should be based on real-time conditions. If you are unsure about short-term trading, have difficulty grasping it, or are not operating smoothly, you can chat with Lao Bai, who provides 24-hour online guidance!
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