The evening of the news, the US September end-season adjusted CPI annual rate was announced at 3.7%, consistent with the previous value, lower than the forecast of 3.6%, and the market performance was bearish; the September end-season adjusted core CPI annual rate was lower than the previous value by 0.6%, slightly higher than the forecast value of 0.3%, with a slightly positive market feedback. From the perspective of the core CPI annual rate, the inflation in the US has been somewhat restrained, but the short-term rebound will inevitably attract the attention of the Federal Reserve. As a result, Powell is likely to have a relatively tough stance, leading to an overall expectation of continued bearishness in the market.

Therefore, for the mainstream sectors, the sudden rebound to 28,000 points in the previous period was a false breakthrough, indicating that the latest round of decline is already brewing. The macro-market liquidity has been showing no signs of slowing down, and the eye-catching behavior of some hot spot imitations has further increased the speed of liquidity withdrawal from mainstream currencies. The most direct market result is that Bitcoin appears increasingly resistant to decline, while other mainstream currencies appear increasingly weak, and the market value of imitations is decreasing. Everything is returning to the starting point. In other words, Bitcoin's market share is increasing, and apart from this, other sectors have no more room to fall, and the market has returned to the starting point of the previous bull run, with Bitcoin leading a new round of market trends with absolute market dominance.

In the recent hot spots, attention should be paid to TRB, which has seen a significant decrease in turnover rate in the short term, and although there has been continuous short-term upward movement, the high points are gradually decreasing, and the speed of mainstream selling has slightly increased. This means that every subsequent small-scale rebound is an opportunity for the main players to sell. Currently, the stable position is around 180 million, with the funding rate hovering around 0% for long and short positions. If it fails to return to above 48 points in the evening and does not see an increase in volume, a sharp decline is only a matter of time.

Then there's BNT and LOOM. BNT's previous trading strategy is similar to TRB's, but macro constraints have prevented BNT's institutions from directly pushing up the price, instead opting for false absorption and washing the plate. In the current bearish situation for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is not expected that BNT will continue to rise without limits. It would be more sensible for the institutions to lure in more buyers and then exit.

After the launch of the contract on Binance, LOOM did not follow the same pattern as the previous tokens, which saw a sudden turn downwards after a feint, but instead steadily rose again by about 30%. The contract position has been steadily increasing from an initial $80 million to a peak of $150 million today, but the core funding rate has remained stable at below 1%. This indicates that the main players have a plan to push up the price, but the lack of cooperation in the overall environment means that they can only temporarily maintain high heat while observing the market trends. If Bitcoin stops falling at this point, it is highly probable that LOOM will continue to rise once more before the end of the market.

To sum up, it is best to stay away from contracts and leverage. It's too difficult to play against the institutions, as it requires consideration of various factors and understanding their intentions, and ultimately depends on the mood of the institutions, which is too difficult.

Finally, regarding the market, starting from October 8th, BTC has been falling for 4 consecutive days, breaking through the 5-day moving average. It is currently suppressed and cannot break through 28,000. In the short term, it can only regain strength at around 26,000. Overall, it has not deviated from the oscillating trend of the long-term cycle, and the current participation level is not too strong. Dollar-cost averaging and short-term trading can continue.

The Ethereum Foundation has sold off some tokens, causing a big scare in the market. The drop in price has not seen much volume, and it is currently around 1500, indicating that some funds have entered in the short term.

There's not much to say about the mainstream currencies, as they are stagnant. DOT has completely deteriorated and is not worth looking at; XRP has fallen to 0.47, related to a whale selling 55 million XRP, and it seems to have reached its monthly low, so it's best not to participate; LINK, previously mentioned at 6.6, rose to around 8.2, and has now retraced to 7.2, which is a normal retracement, and the current trend looks good, so it's worth paying attention to; TRX has fallen below its position, but Sun Yuchen has recently been promoting on a certain platform, so it should be able to hold on, but it's not worth looking at; FIL is mainly oscillating; ADA, following its Waterloo, has basically reached its low and is about to rebound.

As for the altcoins, the hot spots have all been attracted by a new chain game, BIGTIME. Many people started playing this game a year ago, and the fact that it can still raise several million at this time indicates its exceptional qualities. As I mentioned before, the ignition period for the next bull market, I only see two points that are promising: DEFI and games, because both will bring in a lot of new and old players with money, naturally driving another round. So during this period, I suggest that if you want to play with altcoins, focus on the gaming sector and nothing else.

Why is it easiest to make money during the transition between bull and bear markets?

Why do many people make some money during the transition between bull and bear markets, while in a bull market, they often lose money or even end up with nothing? This is because the transition between bull and bear markets is a period of oscillation between the two, based on the oversold rebound in a bear market and the low point based on the previous bull market. The bottom and top are relatively clear within a basic and controllable range, with a relatively small amplitude. As long as one enters the market near the local bottom to do short-term trading, one can basically make some money.

In a bull market, the amplitude is larger, with an average of 18-22 days of increase per month, but there will be a rapid drop in one day, and most people will continue to chase the rise and sell the fall. In the short term, they may profit and taste the sweetness, but as they keep buying at higher and higher costs, their chips may become fewer and fewer. Then, as the bull market enters the latter half, the level of waterfall rises to weekly adjustments, similar to the waterfall on May 19 and the two-month horizontal oscillation period, which is likely to eliminate most people.

I have always believed that a person's character determines their destiny and wealth. Those who make big money all have one thing in common: a stable character and not being arrogant or impetuous. Those with an unstable mentality will find it difficult to persist in this field for a long time.

In the cryptocurrency industry, if you want to seize the opportunity of the next bull market, you need to have a high-quality circle, where everyone can huddle together for warmth and maintain insight. If you are alone and find that there is no one else, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.

If you want to huddle together for warmth or have any doubts, you are welcome to join us. The public account is "hao (Guanguan Shuobi)"!

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