Original author: ASXN

Compiled by: Odaily Planet Daily Azuma

Editor's note:

On September 25th, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic announced that it will receive a maximum of 4 billion US dollars in investment from Amazon. Considering that FTX had previously invested 500 million US dollars as the lead investor in Anthropic's Series B financing, this equity investment is also seen by many FTX creditors as their greatest hope of recovering their principal.

The following is a specific analysis of the current value and potential appreciation of this equity investment by Boutique Digital Asset analyst ASXN, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily.

FTX and its related parties have been very active in the venture capital field, with data showing that they have collectively invested billions of dollars in over 130 companies.

Among FTX's numerous investments, the most noteworthy one is undoubtedly the lead investment in Anthropic's Series B round, with FTX's investment amounting to as much as 500 million US dollars. As Anthropic continues to make waves in the primary market, its soaring valuation naturally brings new hope to FTX creditors.

First, here is some basic information about Anthropic. It is an artificial intelligence startup founded by former OpenAI employees, and has developed an artificial intelligence chat application called Claude, similar to ChatGPT, which is now widely regarded as OpenAI's biggest competitor.

Since its establishment, Anthropic has received billions of dollars in venture capital through multiple rounds of financing.

In April 2022, Anthropic completed a Series B round of 580 million US dollars, with FTX collectively investing 500 million US dollars, including a lead investment from SBF himself, as well as participation from FTX's co-chief engineer Nishad Singh and former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison.

However, the valuation of this round of financing was not disclosed, so we cannot determine FTX's specific transaction price and shareholding percentage. However, we can make some inferences based on the subsequent Series C financing.

In May 2023, Spark Capital led Anthropic's Series C financing of 5.8 billion US dollars. According to TechCrunch, the valuation of this round of financing is estimated to be around 41 billion US dollars. Considering that there is no sign of a downturn in the AI concept during this period, this also implies that the valuation at the time of the Series B financing probably did not exceed 41 billion US dollars.

It can be inferred that FTX's shareholding percentage in Anthropic is likely to exceed 10%, and based on different specific valuation figures, we estimate that FTX's corresponding shareholding percentage should be between 12.5% and 33.33%.

Another piece of evidence regarding FTX's shareholding percentage is Google's investment in Anthropic. In February 2023, Google invested 3 billion US dollars in Anthropic, and several media outlets, including The Verge, reported that this transaction resulted in Google owning 10% of Anthropic.

Due to FTX's earlier entry and larger investment, its shareholding percentage should be greater than Google's.

Returning to the latest developments, Anthropic has recently received a huge additional investment from Amazon. According to interviews conducted by TechCrunch with both parties, this investment will be immediately implemented with 12.5 billion US dollars, and the total subsequent investment is expected to reach 40 billion US dollars.

Although the valuation of this round of financing has not been disclosed, we can make some simple inferences based on another event at the same time.

On September 27th, The Wall Street Journal reported that another AI giant, OpenAI, is in talks with potential investors to sell shares at a valuation of 90 billion US dollars. Combined with the competitive situation between OpenAI and Anthropic, there are rumors that the latest valuation of Anthropic in the capital market has reached 300 billion US dollars.

We will take a more conservative approach and assume that when FTX invested, Anthropic's valuation was 25 billion US dollars, the current valuation is 150 billion US dollars, and FTX's shareholding percentage is 20% (all three data points are taken as mid-range values), resulting in an approximate equity value of 30 billion US dollars.

Now, let's address FTX's own debt issue.

At the time of FTX's bankruptcy filing, its asset shortfall was approximately 9 billion US dollars, and as of May, FTX's submitted data indicated that "approximately 7 billion US dollars in liquid funds have been recovered to date," leaving a hole of 2 billion US dollars. If we do not consider liquidity issues (including the real liquidity of FTX's held assets and the restrictions on realizing the value of Anthropic's equity), it seems that the equity value of Anthropic is already sufficient to cover…

In any case, for the creditors deeply affected by the FTX incident, the increase in Anthropic's valuation is undoubtedly a significant change, bringing greater hope to the victims who are still suffering from the long wait. This is also reflected in the secondary market for FTX creditors, where the expected payout rate has now risen to 35% - 40%, reaching a new high since the collapse of FTX.

Finally, let's revisit an old news.

In June of this year, insiders revealed that the investment bank Perella Weinberg, responsible for handling the FTX bankruptcy case, had been considering selling FTX's stake in Anthropic, but ultimately chose to abandon the idea.

Now, this decision may change the fate of FTX and thousands of creditors.

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