All trading layouts result in either success or ridicule. Be prepared for the former and remain calm in the face of the latter.

As the Federal Reserve once again hits the "pause button," oil prices surge, a major strike in the US automotive industry, and the potential government shutdown continue to threaten the market. The first two risks are likely to reignite US inflation, making the Fed's job even more challenging. In the coming week, we will continue to focus on these three major risks.

The strike by US auto workers has escalated! The United Auto Workers (UAW) announced that the strike will expand nationwide, with 38 parts distribution centers under General Motors and Stellantis participating in the strike. Negotiations with Ford have made progress, and Ford's strike is limited to one factory for now. As of the 22nd local time, the week-long strike has caused economic losses of up to $1.6 billion.

The White House is preparing for a government shutdown! The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives is discussing revising the temporary funding bill: the duration may change from 31 days to 14 to 60 days. On the 22nd local time, the White House instructed federal agencies to prepare for a "shutdown" because of serious internal disagreements within the Republican majority in the House, making it impossible to reach a consensus on appropriations. The House is expected to return on Tuesday and advance a bipartisan bill to avoid a government shutdown, while the Senate may introduce a bipartisan bill to avoid a shutdown on Tuesday.

This week, several Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, will give speeches, and the market will continue to look for signals about future policy direction from their remarks. In terms of data, Thursday's initial jobless claims, US second-quarter GDP and core PCE reports, as well as Friday's August core PCE price index and US September one-year inflation rate expectations, will continue to affect investors' nerves.

However, investors' potential greater concern is the possibility of a government shutdown, as time is running out for Congress to agree on a temporary spending bill before the midnight deadline on September 30. Republicans have already defeated House Speaker McCarthy's defense spending bill three times because they oppose further aid to Ukraine. Even if McCarthy manages to get the House to pass the appropriations bill, the Democratic-controlled Senate is unlikely to pass a bill that includes spending cuts proposed by hardline Republicans.

The intraday market weakened again, and the daily closing price also closed below the Bollinger Bands' midline, indicating a more sustainable trend. Therefore, the support below is given by the daily Bollinger Bands' lower line, followed by the short-term low point. The ultimate support is the overlap of the previous low point and the parallel line of the short-term low point, where the 5-day moving average and the Bollinger Bands' lower line are also located, making it the final support for the bears. This is the best time to go long.

BTC strategy: Buy near 26100, target 26600

ETH strategy: Buy near 1566, target 1600

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