In the early hours of September 21st, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision. Currently, the market predicts a 99% probability that the Fed will pause its rate hikes in September, with some institutions suggesting that the Fed's rate hike cycle may have already ended. Let's take a look at how Fed officials are anticipating the interest rate data.

For the latest updates, please refer to AICoin Flash News on the AICoin app or website: https://aicoin.app/data/ffr

Hawkish Camp

Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman (permanent voting member): Further rate hikes may be necessary to achieve the inflation target.

Gurkspie: It is still too early to declare "mission accomplished" now, as inflation remains higher than our expectations.

Dovish Camp

Federal Reserve's Logan (voting member): Skipping a rate hike in September may be appropriate, but this does not mean halting rate hikes.

Mester: It is currently expected that there will be another rate hike this year, but it may not necessarily be in September. Once the rate hikes stop, the interest rate will be maintained for a period of time. In June, it was expected that there would be a rate cut in the second half of 2024, but this view may change in the new SEP in September.

Harker: Reiterates that he does not currently believe that further rate hikes are necessary. If inflation stops falling, rate hikes may be necessary. Inflation must be brought down to 2%, and it is expected that there will be no rate cuts until at least next year.

No Rate Hike Prediction

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Federal Reserve's Williams: Whether another rate hike is needed "remains an unresolved question."

Federal Reserve's Collins: Time is needed to assess the effectiveness of the policy actions taken so far. There is still a long way to go for the labor market to rebalance. The Fed needs to adopt a cautious, careful, and prudent policy approach.

Federal Reserve's Powell (permanent voting member, chairman): Will cautiously decide whether to raise rates again. If appropriate, prepared to further raise interest rates, and will adopt restrictive policies until inflation continues to slow down; 2% remains and will continue to be our inflation target.

Federal Reserve's Daly: CPI data largely meets expectations, but it does not prove that inflation is under control. There is still a long way to go before discussing rate cuts.

Note: "Voting members" are officials who can participate in voting to determine Fed policy in the current year (2023), and they are divided into permanent voting members and rotating voting members.

According to AICoin's statistics, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, DBS Bank, and other institutions, 76.9% predict that the Fed will maintain interest rates in September. For specific predictions, please refer to “Multiple Institutions Predict No Rate Hike in September”

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