Trade your plan, plan your trade. Good afternoon, friends. I'm Lao Hu. It's now 2:48 in the afternoon. I will comprehensively explain why I am bearish and the reasons for being bearish. I will analyze the macroeconomic and market technical aspects for everyone.

First, on the macroeconomic front, the rebound of inflation in the U.S. economy is considered. However, due to the increase in the fiscal deficit under the high base point interest rates maintained in the previous period, the pace of rate hikes had to be temporarily suspended. The meeting after skipping the rate hike this month will lean towards hawkishness. Currently, both gold and cryptocurrencies are rebounding in the market. The main reason for this is the strike by American auto workers. The U.S. government may face a shutdown issue, which could lead to a postponement of the November Fed rate decision. The government shutdown will stop the collection of some data such as CPI and PPI, so there will be no relevant data available for the market to gauge the current economic situation in the U.S. and the market's direction. This is also why, despite the unexpected growth in PPI and CPI last week, gold and the cryptocurrency market have been rising. The market is concerned about the pressure on the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds, fearing the outbreak of risks, leading to the outflow of funds and the continuous rise of gold and the cryptocurrency market.

So why is Lao Hu bearish again? The Fed's rate decision on November 4th is expected to skip the rate hike, with a focus on the post-meeting, which will lean towards hawkishness. This will add to the anticipation of a rate hike in November for the market. Currently, due to policy and macroeconomic factors, the attention and capital flow in the cryptocurrency market have been declining. This is why Lao Hu has been emphasizing why there will be a major bottom this year. The appearance of a major bottom is also the best opportunity for us to accumulate chips. Next year's halving may not necessarily result in a multiple increase, but it will definitely lead to a significant rise. According to market expectations, the U.S. is expected to reach an astonishing 5.5 basis points after the rate hike in November. Under this high interest rate, the suppression of inflation will lead to a mandatory decline. In the next year's cyclical rotation, as inflation slows down, the Fed will be eager to cut interest rates to restore the economy and the circulation of the U.S. dollar. The key period for the big cake has now reached 27,500 points, which is the central pressure point ahead and the dividing point between long and short positions. It is clear that the two attempts last night failed to break through. The bullish momentum is gradually diminishing. As Thursday approaches, a new downward cycle will begin, and Lao Hu has already started to lay out. There are risks in investment, so trading needs to be cautious! Image

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