Hello everyone, I am a cryptocurrency market strategist (Crypto Big Orange), focusing on sharing the trends of mainstream currencies, without much rhetoric, just earnestly presenting my own insights!

——Orange Talks Hot Topics——

There are many highlights in the market this week. Starting from Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan will successively announce interest rate decisions. However, for convenience, we only need to focus on the most important result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of no interest rate hike given by CME has reached 99%, so it seems there is no suspense. What we need to pay more attention to is Powell's speech. In addition to the interest rate meetings of various central banks, countries such as Canada, the UK, Germany, and Japan will also release CPI data. Since it is currently the turning point of the global interest rate hike trend, these data are still very important for future policies and next year's interest rate reduction process. We need to spend more time paying attention to these this week. Of course, everyone's leverage needs to be slightly reduced, and the market fluctuations this week should be significant.

Moving on to an important data from last Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September showed a slight decline, lower than expected, indicating that both short-term and long-term inflation expectations will decrease significantly. Although consumers noticed a pause in the slowdown of inflation during the entire survey process, they expect the overall trend of inflation slowdown to recover in the future. In plain language, people still have strong expectations for future inflation decline.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs has also bet on no interest rate hike in November. Its prediction is based on data analysis, which shows further rebalancing of the labor market, better news on inflation, and the possibility of economic growth slowing down in the fourth quarter, which will convince more participants that the FOMC can abandon the last interest rate hike of the year. Goldman Sachs also predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise its forecast for US economic growth in 2023 from 1% to 2.1% at this week's interest rate meeting, lower the unemployment rate forecast for 2023 to 3.9%, and lower the core inflation rate forecast to 3.5%. This implies that the Federal Reserve will shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy, which is indeed favorable for interest rate cuts next year.

Now back to the cryptocurrency market, there were no major events over the weekend. Liquidity providers like DWF still dominate the market, and now they are becoming more and more unscrupulous in their operations. Several manipulated coins experienced sharp fluctuations, with HIFI reaching a high of 2.63 on Saturday and now priced at 0.86, a 67% drop from the peak. Similarly, TRB also dropped from a high of 49 on Saturday to the current 26, a 47% decline, FRONT dropped from a high of 0.31 to 0.2, a 37% decline, and WLD dropped from a high of 1.72 to the current price of 1.28, a 25% decline.

The trend of these coins reflects the manipulation tactics of DWF, which involves aggressively driving up prices and selling off when there is enough buying interest, resulting in prices almost returning to the level before the surge. Apart from liquidity providers like DWF, it is quite difficult for small retail investors to make money in this process. However, this manipulation tactic does provide opportunities for making some profit, for example, as long as you are not greedy and exit when it rises by 5%, you can achieve stable gains. But human desires are beyond imagination, and it is difficult to achieve the discipline of selling at the right time and buying low, especially in the current bear market. One might easily get trapped for a lifetime, so it's really not advisable to dabble in these manipulated coins in the current market. It's better to wait for the bull market to come before making a move.

——Orange Talks Market——

BTC: The weekly and daily charts of Bitcoin have lost their reference value. We still need to look at the short-term trend to judge the possible future trend. Currently, from the 2-hour perspective, the bottom adjustment has ended and has already risen above the trend line, so in the next 2 hours, it will continue to rise.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, although there have been as many as 5 bottom support signals, it still has not effectively risen above 26900, let alone stabilized at the 28000 level. Therefore, this week will be a crucial one. If it can rise above 28000 by the end of this week, there is a high probability of an upward surge during the National Day holiday. If it fails, there is a high probability of continued adjustment.

Unscrupulous manipulation by liquidity providers, how it goes up is how it comes down. Retail investors must remember to secure their gains. Since the trend has not yet formed, it is best to enter and exit quickly, especially for manipulated coins. Don't be greedy.

Perpetual short-term recommendation: Short at 27800-28100, long at 26500-26800.

ETH: Ethereum followed the rebound trend of the overall market over the weekend, and this trend is not weaker than that of Bitcoin. Today's trading volume also showed improvement, exceeding half of Bitcoin's volume. It can be seen that there is a short-term strengthening trend, but considering that this week is a super central bank week, the cryptocurrency market is unlikely to have an independent trend from this perspective.

Of course, if it is confirmed on Thursday that the macroscopic interest rate cycle is ending, the cryptocurrency market may also usher in a general uptrend. However, this will only be known on Thursday. On-chain data still does not show a significant increase in TVL, currently at 21.4 billion, and it is quite difficult to push GAS above 10 now. NFT and dog coin transactions have also significantly decreased, and on-chain activity is not sufficient. Overall, on-chain data is not favorable. However, in the long term, considering that the lock-up rate of Ethereum on the beacon chain will continue to increase, the storage value of ETH will be strengthened to a certain extent. Therefore, holding spot positions for the long term is still my recommended investment strategy.

Perpetual short-term recommendation: Long at 1610-1630, short at 1720-1730.

Risk warning and disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual readers. Readers should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.

————I am Crypto Big Orange. Friends with trading issues can learn and discuss together! Scan the code to follow the public account for inquiries about market trends and operations!

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