Market Macro:

The market is beginning to face the fiscal risks brought about by the sustained rebound of US inflation, but with real and substantial inflation rising, market funds are starting to shift from stable investments such as US bonds and the US dollar to targets for risk hedging and value preservation in the market, such as gold or cryptocurrency. The US dollar index, as the author indicated at the beginning of last Monday, is expected to remain stable above 105, while the renminbi has started to decline since the central bank's interest rate and reserve ratio cuts last month. However, with the central bank's increase in gold reserves as backing, the continued weakening of the pressure brought about by the US dollar, and a series of economic stimulus and consumption-driven policies, the renminbi exchange rate has bottomed out and rebounded. The current US dollar to renminbi exchange rate has fallen below 7.3. With the addition of this month's Fed interest rate decision, the exchange rate may once again be lowered, mainly due to the unexpected rise in US CPI annual rate. The speech after the meeting is likely to be hawkish. Pay attention to the speech after the Fed meeting decision at 2 am on Thursday, which may trigger a bottom retracement for the year!

Market Analysis:

Yesterday's market trend of the "big cake" followed our expectations. After a three-wave upward trend on the hourly chart, the price did not break through. After a failed attempt to break through, the price quickly fell back, but the downside was limited. The main funds quickly swept the market and broke through the short-term pressure at the 26620 level. After breaking through the pressure in the morning, the upward space opened up. The upper track line of the daily K-line Bollinger Band rose, and the RSI stochastic indicator returned above the 50 value. The market is mostly bullish.

After the rapid rise of the "big cake" in the morning, the high point saw retail chips being sold off, causing the market to fall back slightly. Whether this will evolve into a sell-off, we can focus on whether the market can stabilize above the 26620 level under this high-level retracement. If it stabilizes, there will be momentum to impact the previous high points during the day. Our overall operation will still be mostly bullish. Whether from the return of funds or the stabilization of the daily K-line price above the Fibonacci retracement line of 0.236, there is a continuous upward momentum in the market during the day. Operationally, we will mainly defend at the 26450 level and look for a breakthrough at the 27000 point.

Compared to the "big cake," Ethereum is relatively weaker, as the author has been emphasizing. Ethereum broke through the downtrend channel on the hourly chart, and with high selling pressure at the high end of the downtrend channel, if the price can stabilize above the 1625 level, there will be momentum for a rapid rebound. Overall, we will still be mostly bullish, mainly defending at the 1620 level and looking for a breakthrough at the 1636 level.

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