Analysis of the future market and market opportunities

CN
1 year ago

For the US CPI annual rate, we made a perfect prediction last night, but the market situation did not change much. The main reason is the counter-trend market caused by the support rally of the opposing market, and secondly, the policy changes that the Bank of Japan will make regarding the depreciation of the yen, the rebound of the UK economy, the rebound of the pound, and the trend of bottoming out and rebounding of currencies in other countries. As I mentioned before, the USD to CNY has reached a relative peak, and the future market will gradually rebound. With the continuous gold reserves by the central bank as the endorsement of the renminbi, the renminbi's value will gradually warm up. The rebound of major mainstream currencies will suppress the USD, so this is also a factor in the lack of market volatility.

The unexpected rebound of the US CPI indicates that the market's intervention in the future will be what? The unexpected rebound of the CPI represents that the inflation has reached a value that the market can predict. This will lead to an increasing bet on a rate hike in November. The Fed officials have been leaning hawkish on future rate hikes, and the prediction for a rate hike in November will rise to 60-70%. If there is another rate hike in November, the US dollar index may break the year's high of 105.9, which will have a significant impact on risky asset investments such as gold and cryptocurrencies.

Regarding the market, there are signs of sustained main force accumulation in the front of the "big cake." After multiple accumulations, the market also pulled a large bullish candlestick, followed by a large amount of selling. Has the main force already retreated? In terms of opposing market and main force manipulation, the breaking through of this large bearish candlestick involves some selling pressure. How can we determine if the main force has already retreated? Based on the current one-hour pattern, it is a typical pattern of breaking through the top and stopping at the bottom. Therefore, we can be more aggressive in our operation, going short at the current price and defending the 26,300 level. As for Ethereum, it is relatively weaker than the "big cake," so we can still go short at the current price and defend the 1630 level!

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