According to SEC public documents, ARK Invest and ETP issuer 21Shares have collaborated to submit the first application for an Ethereum spot ETF. The fund is named "ARK 21Shares ETHEREUM ETF," and it represents the first attempt to list a fund directly investing in the second largest cryptocurrency by market value, ETH, in the United States.

This news has had a certain impact on the price of Ethereum. Initially, the price of Ethereum rose from $1,625 to $1,670, but the increase was not sustained, and it quickly fell back to around $1,630, remaining in a narrow range of fluctuations within this range, with a minimal increase of only 0.02% in the last 24 hours. The trend of Bitcoin is similar, with a decrease of 0.17% in the last 24 hours.

Following the wave of Bitcoin spot ETF applications sparked by BlackRock, Volatility Shares submitted an application to the SEC for an Ethereum futures ETF on July 28. Subsequently, many U.S. fund management companies have also submitted applications for Ethereum futures ETFs, with as many as 16 Ethereum futures ETFs currently awaiting SEC review.

Insiders revealed that the SEC may approve multiple applications for Ethereum futures ETFs simultaneously. Volatility Shares also stated its plan to launch an Ethereum futures ETF following standard procedures on October 12, becoming the first Ethereum futures ETF to be launched in the United States.

If the SEC does approve the application for an Ethereum spot ETF, these companies are likely to also apply for spot ETFs or undergo transformation.

Bloomberg has stated that the SEC should approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, which could potentially introduce $3 trillion in funds. GBTC is the world's second largest Bitcoin entity, holding over 16 billion bitcoins. Currently, Bitcoin is mainly experiencing short-term fluctuations, with lower lows, dropping back to $25,300 last night, a critical level for the bulls. Once this key point is broken, the price may further decline. It is recommended to focus on short positions in trading.

The interest rate cycle, Bitcoin halving, and spot ETFs are key factors affecting the long-term trend of coin prices. Regarding interest rates, two Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish remarks, suggesting that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates this year. However, these officials' remarks may be influenced by their personal positions and the current economic situation, and may not represent the overall stance of the Fed.

In any case, the Fed's interest rate decision will also be influenced by other factors such as economic data and political events. When deciding whether to raise interest rates, the Fed needs to consider these factors comprehensively to ensure economic balance and stability. As for the specific timing of interest rate hikes, the market currently predicts that the probability of a rate hike in September is close to zero, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November is slightly higher than 50%. I expect the final rate hike may occur in November this year, and interest rate hikes are nearing an end, which is an undeniable fact!

Is the current stage the best buying opportunity?

Shitcoins on Binance have been skyrocketing, with small coins valued at less than $20 million being sought after by speculative capital, leading to a sustained market trend for several days. I estimate that this will have an impact on the overall market trend, and confidence in the crypto market is expected to gradually recover.

We have always emphasized that there will be a good upward trend at the end of the year, so now is the best buying opportunity. Focus mainly on mainstream currencies, supplemented with a strategy for some shitcoins. As for junk shitcoins, if you can keep up with speculative capital through technical analysis, you can participate in short-term uptrends. However, if you do not have this technical analysis ability, it is advisable not to trade blindly, especially to maintain consistency to avoid asset losses.

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