This text is only a personal opinion on the market and does not constitute investment advice. If you act according to this, you are responsible for your gains and losses.
Beijing trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.
For those who are just starting to learn martial arts, they always want to practice an invincible move, a move that can defeat the enemy and win every battle. However, as they practice, they realize that without strong internal force, there is no way to talk about invincible moves, and internal force comes from internal martial arts. Therefore, in martial arts novels, there is never a specific top move, only the top martial arts.
"Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" is one of the classic books for traders. The entire book does not contain any specific moves; it is all about the philosophy of trading, which is the internal martial arts of trading. Recently, the Beijing trader has been reading "Selected Works of Mao Zedong," and one of the articles is "Strategic Problems of China's Revolutionary War," which left a deep impression. Trading itself is a war. Therefore, some of the concepts about war in Mao's selected works are undoubtedly applicable to trading and are worth our repeated reading as the internal martial arts. Here are some excerpts, originally intended to include some personal opinions, but later thought it might have a negative effect, so this article is just an excerpt to share:
We should certainly respect the experience of past bloodshed, but we should also respect our own experience of bloodshed.
The situation of war, determining different guiding principles of war, has differences in time, place, and nature. When studying the guiding principles of war in different historical stages, different natures, different regions, and nationalities, we should focus on their characteristics and development, and oppose mechanical views on war issues.
3. All guiding principles of war develop according to historical development and the development of war; there is nothing that remains unchanged.
4. Understanding the overall situation will make it easier to use the local situation, because the local situation is subordinate to the overall situation.
5. Saying "a careless move, lose all," refers to the overall situation, that is, a move with decisive significance for the overall situation, rather than a move with local significance that has no decisive significance for the overall situation. This applies to chess as well as war.
- In the history of war, there are those who have won every battle and then suffered a defeat, and there are those who have suffered many defeats and then won a victory, thus opening up a new situation in the war. Here, "winning every battle" and "many defeats" are both local and do not have a decisive effect on the overall situation. Here, "a defeat" and "a victory" are both decisive. All of this illustrates the importance of taking care of the overall situation. The most important thing for those in command of the overall situation is to focus their attention on taking care of the overall situation of the war.
7. Everything that is consistent is extremely rare in war and battle, because the two sides of war or battle are groups of armed living people who also maintain secrecy, which is very different from dealing with inanimate objects or daily events. However, as long as the overall situation is in line with the situation, that is, in the part that is decisive, it is the basis for victory.
The correct deployment of a commander comes from the correct determination, the correct determination comes from the correct judgment, and the correct judgment comes from thorough and necessary reconnaissance and the coherent thinking about various reconnaissance materials.
Careless military leaders do not do this, they base their military plans on wishful thinking, which is unrealistic. Rash military leaders are not immune to being deceived by the enemy, being lured by the enemy's surface or one-sided situation, and being incited by irresponsible and uninformed advice from their subordinates, and therefore they are bound to run into a wall because they do not know or are unwilling to know that any military plan should be based on thorough thinking about necessary reconnaissance and the mutual relationship between the enemy and us.
10. The process of understanding the situation not only exists before the establishment of a military plan, but also exists after the establishment of a military plan. When executing a certain plan, from the beginning of the execution to the end of the battle, this is another process of understanding the situation, that is, the process of implementation. At this time, whether the things in the first process are in line with the actual situation needs to be rechecked. If the plan does not match the situation, or does not fully match, it must be changed according to the new understanding to make it suitable for the new situation. There are almost always some changes in part in every battle, and there are also occasional changes in all. Rash people do not know how to change, or are unwilling to change, they just blindly act, and the result is bound to run into a wall.
All principled military laws or military theories are summaries made by past or present people about the experience of past wars. We should focus on learning the lessons left to us by these past wars. This is one thing. However, there is another thing, which is to verify these conclusions from our own experience, absorb what is useful, and add what is unique to us. This latter point is very important. Without doing this, we cannot guide the war.
Revolution and revolutionary war are offensive, but there is also defense and retreat—this statement is completely correct.
When to end one's own offensive and prepare for the stage of counter-encirclement? When we are in the midst of a victorious offensive, and the enemy is in a defensive position, the enemy's encirclement preparations are being carried out in secret, and it is difficult for us to know when they will start their offensive. If we start preparing for counter-encirclement too early, it will inevitably reduce the gains of the offensive and sometimes have some adverse effects on the Red Army and the people. Because the main steps in the preparatory stage are military preparations for retreat and political mobilization for preparing to retreat. Sometimes, preparing too early will turn into waiting for the enemy; after waiting for a long time and the enemy does not come, we have to launch our offensive again. Sometimes, just as our re-attack is beginning, we happen to encounter the beginning of the enemy's attack, putting ourselves in a difficult position. Therefore, the choice of the timing to start preparing is an important issue. Determining this timing should be based on the situation and the relationship between the enemy and us. In order to understand the enemy's situation, it is necessary to collect materials from the enemy's political, military, financial, and social public opinion. When analyzing these materials, it is necessary to estimate the enemy's overall strength sufficiently, not to exaggerate the degree of the enemy's past failures, but also never to underestimate the contradictions within the enemy, financial difficulties, and the impact of past failures. On our side, we must not exaggerate the degree of past victories, but we must also sufficiently estimate the impact of past victories.
The timing issue of starting preparation, generally speaking, it is better to be too early than too late. Because the loss of the latter is smaller than the former, and its benefits lie in being prepared and fundamentally standing on unbeatable ground.
Political mobilization is the first important issue in the struggle against counter-encirclement. That is to say, clearly, decisively, and fully inform the Red Army personnel and the people in the base areas about the inevitability and urgency of the enemy's attack and the seriousness of the harm to the people by the enemy's attack.
16. The carelessness caused by underestimating the enemy and the panic caused by being frightened by the enemy's attack are both undesirable tendencies. What we need is a warm and calm mood, tense and orderly work.
17. The purpose of strategic retreat is to preserve military strength and prepare for a counter-attack. The reason why retreat is necessary is that in the face of the enemy's strong attack, if we do not retreat, it will endanger the preservation of military strength.
To prepare for a counter-attack, it is necessary to choose and create several conditions that are favorable to us and unfavorable to the enemy, so that the balance of power between us and the enemy changes, and then enter the counter-attack phase.
Another necessary condition for a weak army to fight a strong army is to pick the weak to fight. However, when the enemy begins to attack, we often do not know which part of the enemy's forces is the weakest, which part is the second strongest, and which part is the second weakest, and this requires a process of reconnaissance. It often takes a long time to achieve this goal. This is also a reason why strategic retreat is necessary.
If the attacking enemy far exceeds our army in quantity and strength, we need the contrast of strength to change, and we should only wait until the enemy has entered the base area and suffered the hardships of the base area, as the chief of staff of a certain brigade said during the third encirclement, "the fat ones drag the thin ones, and the thin ones drag the dead ones."
The determination of the end point of the retreat must be made from the perspective of the entire situation. If it seems advantageous to us to switch to a counter-attack in a local situation, if it is not also advantageous to us in the overall situation at the same time, then it is incorrect to determine the end point of the retreat based on this. Because the start of the counter-attack must take into account the changes that will occur in the overall situation after each battle, and our counter-attacks always start locally.
Regarding the issue of losing territory, there is often a situation where only by losing can we avoid losing, which is the principle of "to take, one must first give."
Our losses during the fifth encirclement by the enemy were precisely because of this. Not willing to lose part of the territory, we ended up losing all the territory.
They only look at the problem from a local perspective, without the ability to see the overall situation, unwilling to connect today's interests with tomorrow's interests, and to connect partial interests with overall interests, clinging to things in a part and at a time and never letting go.
The first battle of the counter-attack is of great importance. The outcome of the first battle has a great impact on the overall situation, and even affects the final battle. Therefore, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1) First, it must be won. We must have a grasp of the enemy's situation, terrain, and conditions such as the people that are favorable to us and unfavorable to the enemy before taking action. Otherwise, it is better to retreat and wait for the right moment. Opportunities always exist, and we must not rush into battle. Reject all hasty fighting proposals.
2) Second, the plan for the first battle must be the organic prelude to the overall battle plan. Without a good overall battle plan, there cannot be a truly good first battle. This means that even if the first battle is won, if it is not favorable to the overall battle, but harmful, then even if this battle is won, it is considered a defeat. Therefore, before the first battle, we must think about how to fight the second, third, fourth, and even the last battle, how the overall situation will change if we win each battle, and how it will change if we lose. Without considering the overall situation, one will not truly make a good move.
3) Third, we must also think about the next strategic stage. If we only focus on the counter-attack and do not consider what to do after the counter-attack victory, or what to do in the event of a failure, we have not fulfilled the responsibility of a strategic leader. When a strategic leader is in a strategic stage, he should calculate the next several stages, or at least calculate the next stage. Although the future changes are unpredictable and seem increasingly distant, it is possible to make a general calculation and it is necessary to estimate the prospects for the future. The way of guiding that takes one step at a time is not favorable for politics and is also not favorable for war. When taking a step, we must look at the specific changes in that step, and based on this, modify or develop our own strategic and battle plans. Without doing this, we will make reckless mistakes. However, it is indispensable to have a long-term policy that is generally thought out and thought through several strategic stages, at least one strategic stage.
4) It must be won; it must take care of the overall battle plan; it must take care of the next strategic stage; these are the three principles that must not be forgotten when the counter-attack begins, that is, when the first battle is fought.
- There cannot be an absolutely fixed battle line in any war, and the changes in victory, defeat, advance, and retreat do not allow for this.
Finally, welcome everyone to privately message and exchange personal understandings.
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