August K-line is about to take shape. It has been fluctuating in the range of 24800 to 31000 for 5 months since breaking through 25200 in March. It can also be seen that the pressure from the M-shaped pattern formed in 20-21 is very high. From the Fibonacci perspective, the rebound from 15400 to the highest point of 31800 is also below 0.382. From the wave structure, it is in a rebound B wave, and the monthly OBV indicator is in a continuous outflow state. It is important to note that the MACD is still above the zero axis, and if it falls below the zero axis again, extra attention is needed. After the weekly downtrend rebound touched near the midline, if it cannot regain the midline or stay above 28600, the bearish momentum may return, and the probability of a downward oscillation in the later period may increase, with 25000 possibly not being maintained.
Bitcoin
Daily chart
Affected by the news of Grayscale winning the lawsuit against the SEC, it rebounded upwards. We also made a rebound prediction on 8/21, and the next key point will depend on whether the ETF is approved in early September or if there are continuous positive developments. Without regaining the key position, the market cannot continue.
I don't know if everyone remembers that on 8/13, the SEC extended the review time for ARK's spot Bitcoin ETF application, and the market fell from over 29000 to over 25100. This is somewhat related, and before the SEC's ruling on the ARK ETF, the market also saw a rise, just like now. Of course, BlackRock's status is not comparable to others. If it is approved next, the probability of other ETFs being approved is relatively high. On the contrary, don't expect too much.
On the short term, the support was somewhat established around 27000 last night, but the rebound strength was weak and did not stay above 27265. If it fails to rebound past 28142 again, there is a high chance of further testing the support at 26819.
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