Based on the latest released data, the number of job vacancies in the US Department of Labor has dropped to 8.83 million, lower than expected and reaching a new low in the past 7 months. This indicates that the US job market is facing a weakening situation. At the same time, data released by the Economic Advisory Committee shows that the consumer confidence index has also declined, dropping from the previous value of 114 to 106.1, below market expectations. In particular, both the confidence index for evaluating the current situation and the expectation index reflecting the outlook for the next six months have declined.

These data suggest that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy measures may be taking effect and alleviating pressure for further interest rate hikes. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool data, the market's expectation of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike at the September meeting has significantly decreased to 9.5%, while the probability of no change has soared to 90.5%.

In this context, the US stock market rebounded across the board yesterday, despite narrowing gains. However, cryptocurrency markets such as Bitcoin remain a hot topic of concern. The controversy between traditional fund management companies and the regulatory agency SEC over Bitcoin spot ETFs may gradually intensify, signaling a new era for the cryptocurrency market. Although it is personally believed that the Bitcoin spot ETF may not be rejected, it may be delayed. It should be noted that September 1st to 4th is a sensitive period, and market volatility may increase.

Regarding the trend of Bitcoin, it is currently in the B-wave stage of the second wave of correction, and the high point is not expected to exceed $28,500. To see a trend reversal, it must rise above $29,200, but the likelihood of this is small. It is recommended to short in batches between $27,500 and $28,500, and wait for the correction of the C-wave. In the short term, there may be consolidation and oscillation around $27,000, and it may be safer to continue to maintain a bearish strategy.

What are our expectations for the future of Bitcoin?

As the second half of 2023 approaches, the topic of discussion is still Bitcoin. This cryptocurrency has experienced a roller-coaster-like decade, with rapid rises and nauseating falls. However, it remains the largest cryptocurrency by market value.

The following will share some views. Here are five predictions for the future development of Bitcoin:

First, with the influx of institutional investors, Bitcoin will continue to attract more funds. As a reliable store of value with limited supply and growing demand, Bitcoin will become a favorite of institutional investors. Mutual funds, hedge funds, and even pension funds will all enter the cryptocurrency market, injecting a continuous stream of funds into the development of Bitcoin.

Second, regulatory clarity will have a positive impact on Bitcoin. Strengthened regulation can be seen as a form of legitimization, protecting the rights of investors and excluding bad actors from the market, providing greater security and credibility. At the same time, overly strict regulation may limit innovation and adoption, so a balance in regulation is crucial.

Third, technological progress will drive the development of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin's technology is relatively primitive, efforts are being made to improve its scalability, reduce transaction costs, and speed up confirmation times. Innovations such as the Lightning Network have shown promise. With continuous technological progress, Bitcoin will become more user-friendly and have greater commercial viability in daily transactions.

Fourth, the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin will continue to expand. As more people recognize the practical value of Bitcoin, its market value may double. The younger generation's familiarity with digital assets is increasing, making them more likely to choose Bitcoin as an investment and payment method. Meanwhile, more and more companies are starting to accept Bitcoin payments, which will further drive the popularization of Bitcoin.

Finally, geopolitical factors will also impact Bitcoin. As a decentralized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has the advantage of financial freedom and transparency. During periods of global economic instability or declining trust in the traditional financial system, Bitcoin's decentralized nature becomes particularly attractive. Unlike fiat currencies managed by a single institution, Bitcoin operates on a distributed network, providing a certain degree of financial freedom. In times of economic volatility or uncertainty, Bitcoin has the potential to serve as a financial safe haven, similar to gold in history.

In summary, we are optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. With the impetus of institutional investment, regulatory clarity, technological progress, broader mainstream adoption, and geopolitical factors, Bitcoin is expected to continue to develop in the future and become an important digital asset and store of value. However, it should be noted that the Bitcoin market still has volatility, and investors should make decisions rationally based on their own risk tolerance.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。