Daily Sharing

I have to say, in this market, trading solely based on intuition is not feasible. All your trades should be based on a rigorous and meticulous logic (even though sometimes the logic may not be completely correct), otherwise it is very easy to be harvested by the market.

For example, in the past week, the price of BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly in the range of 25700 to 26300. A discerning person can tell that the rebound of BTC is very weak. So, should you short near 26000 based on this feeling?

Definitely not. The current weakness may not necessarily be real weakness. Look, last night, didn't many people get liquidated by shorting? But when you base your actions on a certain logic, you cannot directly short near 26000. So, in the past week or so, the short-term strategy in the member group has been to go long, because structurally, it tends to indicate that the 4-hour rebound has not yet completed.

BTC

4H:

At the 4-hour level, the current structure is still within our expectations, representing the fourth 4-hour rebound. Since the third 4-hour decline did not diverge from the first one, normally there should be a fifth 4-hour decline. Therefore, at the moment, it is still expected to be a rebound rather than a reversal. Over the weekend or next week, we may still see a fifth 4-hour decline to retest the range of 24000 to 25000.

However, facing such a strong rebound, we cannot completely stick to our original viewpoint. Therefore, we need to add a limiting condition to the above analysis. That is, if the price reverts back above the blue resistance line in the chart, the market may undergo a reversal. In other words, if the price reclaims 28500, the market may not just be a 4-hour rebound, but a rebound at the daily level.

So, this limiting condition must be considered. You cannot say that the market has broken through 29000, while still insisting on the fifth 4-hour decline to below 25000. That would indeed be inflexible.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, according to normal technical analysis, yesterday's rebound from the lower end of the 1-hour range was a departure from the consolidation phase, and the strength did not diverge from the entry phase. So, if it holds above 26300, there is a high probability of a continuation of the uptrend to above 28000. If analyzed this way, it is a relatively normal and step-by-step analysis.

However, in actual market conditions, we may need to consider more factors for a comprehensive judgment.

A regular rebound like last night should have ended near 27500, but it was influenced by Grayscale's news about spot ETF, leading to a subsequent rise driven by sentiment. So, if the impact of the news dissipates, or if there is another bearish news, a return to normalcy should be expected.

Furthermore, if BTC undergoes another daily rebound to test the previous high, there is no problem structurally. But if ETH undergoes another daily rebound to the previous high, the structure would look unfavorable and not in line with the subsequent weekly decline.

So, considering all these factors, the probability of BTC undergoing another decline to 25000 is not small, unless the short-term rebound can decisively break through 28500. In this case, we cannot analyze the market according to the regular trend.

If you do not want to take the risk of shorting, you can continue to observe, but it is definitely better to take profits in batches when going long.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, after falling from the high near 28142, a 15-minute retracement has already occurred. If it holds above 27000, there is likely to be another 15-minute rebound to around 27800 in the afternoon. Subsequently, it may tend to consolidate around 27400 for a day, and then we will see whether it will continue to decline or break out upwards.

Of course, if it cannot hold above 27000 today, we should be prepared for the possibility of a direct decline, as indicated by the green arrow in the chart.

ETH

At the 4-hour level for ETH, if the current 4-hour rebound cannot break through 1800 and reverts back to the consolidation phase, it would still be a third sell-off at the 4-hour level, and there is a high probability of another decline to 1550. So, it may still be too early to say that the trend has reversed, and we need to further observe the situation.

At the 15-minute level, a 15-minute retracement has already occurred, and there may be another rebound to around 1740 at night. We will continue to observe whether it will continue to decline or break through 1750 to reach 1800. Although it currently tends to decline again, we still need to leave some time to observe.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Downward, in the process of oscillating decline at the weekly level

Daily Level: Downward, currently in a downward trend at the daily level, focusing on around 24800

4-hour Level: Upward, the fourth 4-hour rebound has been successful, and if it does not break through 28500 in the short term, the viewpoint of the fifth 4-hour decline remains unchanged

1-hour Level: Upward, for now, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 27000 to 28000, and then we will see whether it will continue to decline or break out upwards

15-minute Level: Upward, if it holds above 27000, there will be another 15-minute rebound to around 27800

Feel free to follow my public account for further discussion and exchange:

The article is time-sensitive, so be mindful of the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

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