Compilation | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | Qin Xiaofeng

Tonight, court documents show that Grayscale has won a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In June last year, the SEC rejected Grayscale's application to transform its Bitcoin trust GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF, citing "inability to protect investors from fraudulent and market manipulation." Grayscale subsequently sued the SEC, and the two sides argued in court on March 7 this year in the District of Columbia Circuit Court.

After several months of waiting, the case has temporarily ended tonight with Grayscale's victory. Grayscale CEO Sonnenshein expressed his gratitude for the favorable ruling by the Washington, D.C. Circuit Court and thanked investors for their support and encouragement. In addition, Grayscale's legal team is actively reviewing the court's opinion.

Does Grayscale's victory mean that the Bitcoin spot ETF is about to be officially launched? On this issue, various parties hold different views, as compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:

Adam Cochran, partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, stated that the SEC has three options regarding the court ruling: to delay the decision and provide new reasons for rejection; to acknowledge and approve (Grayscale ETF); or to request a full bench appeal of the case. "However, considering the reasons for the court's ruling and the fact that they (the court) repeatedly pointed out that the SEC failed to support any of its arguments, a full bench appeal would be a terrible decision and could only anger the court. So this is a huge victory."

Sonali Basak, an analyst at Bloomberg TV, stated, "This does not automatically mean that GBTC will immediately convert to an ETF. As the court said, this only means that the U.S. SEC failed to explain why it approved Bitcoin futures ETP instead of the product proposed by Grayscale (spot ETF)." She added that there is still a long process ahead, including a 45-day appeal period, during which both parties will review the ruling, and the SEC can also request a full hearing. "It is currently unclear whether Grayscale needs to resubmit its application to convert GBTC to an ETF."

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, commented that although Grayscale's lawsuit victory does not mean that GBTC can freely convert to an ETF, it does move the conversion process forward.

Jake Chervinsky, Chief Policy Officer of the Blockchain Association, stated that Grayscale's victory over the SEC is a huge win. For a whole decade, the SEC has rejected Bitcoin spot ETF proposals with the rationale of "preventing fraudulent and manipulative behavior and practices," and that era has now come to an end. However, the court did not order the SEC to approve Grayscale's ETF proposal; it only indicated that the SEC's analysis of the "fraud and manipulation" issue was incorrect. Now, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission must consider the court's ruling and review Grayscale's proposal again.

"What will the SEC do? One view is that the SEC will choose a different reason to reject Grayscale's proposal and force a longer, more costly lawsuit. This is possible, and it is difficult to underestimate the extreme hostility of the SEC leadership towards cryptocurrencies. Another view is that the SEC will relent and use the ruling of the Washington, D.C. Circuit Court as support for its withdrawal from the anti-ETF position. 'We disagree, but we follow the rule of law' is the most reasonable excuse to exit a failed battle."

He added that the SEC will also face political pressure to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF. This is not just a problem for Grayscale; TradFi has already prepared for Bitcoin ETFs, including traditional institutions such as BlackRock, which have successively proposed Bitcoin spot ETFs this year. The question now is, which path will the SEC choose? Does it want to make itself more painful? If there is another denial, there will be another lawsuit.

(Continuously updated)

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