Currently, the price of Bitcoin is basically maintained at the level of $29,000, with relatively low market activity and momentum. This situation indicates that investors are not optimistic about the trend of Bitcoin prices, and they expect the possibility of another sharp drop in Bitcoin prices before the bull market resumes.

Will the price of Bitcoin repeat the situation of 2019-2020?

Looking back at the past, the price of Bitcoin experienced a roller-coaster-like fluctuation from 2019 to 2020. The bear market dealt a severe blow to digital assets, with the price of Bitcoin falling by over 80%, dropping below the historical high at that time, and this collapse continued until 2020.

Given that the price of Bitcoin tends to follow previous trends, investors can understandably expect this trend to repeat. However, why might this situation not occur?

We can illustrate this with an example of a small town experiencing a flood. In a small town that had never experienced a flood before, businesses did not purchase flood insurance, and as a result, they were at a loss when the flood suddenly struck. However, looking ahead, businesses began to realize the possibility of another flood occurring, so they purchased flood insurance.

Despite taking measures to reduce the possibility of another flood, people continue to operate knowing the impact of the flood. This is because people are more likely to remember the most recent events that have had a significant impact on them, a psychological phenomenon known as "recency bias."

When this recency bias is applied to Bitcoin, investors may expect the situation from 2019 to 2020 to repeat because it was the most recent bear market. Therefore, investors operate considering the recent influential events.

However, we also need to recognize that events like COVID-19 are unprecedented. The likelihood of seeing the same trend in Bitcoin prices as in 2019 and 2020 is quite low.

Market Outlook

For the current market, the price of Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating in the range of $28,500 to $29,800 in the short term, but the rebound momentum has weakened. It is recommended for investors to continue with short-term operations, but to set good profit-taking and stop-loss points. In the long term, $28,500 and $27,500 are support levels, while $29,800 and $30,500 are resistance levels.

The current market is relatively stable, no longer experiencing the drastic fluctuations as before, providing better opportunities for short-term operators. However, it is important to note that not every trade will result in doubling profits; a 30% profit from each trade is quite reasonable.

Identify coins with potential for a rebound, and avoid chasing highs and selling lows

In addition, investors should be cautious about chasing highs and selling lows, and can identify some coins with potential for a rebound.

SHIB: The highlight of this week is the official launch of Shibarium L2. People seem to be a bit impatient and actively shorting, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a squeeze. However, if there is a good entry opportunity, I still lean towards shorting. Keep a close eye on it.

DOGE/USD: Only interested in this round of operations (SHIB > DOGE). The coin has been moving against the market, but structurally it looks good. If the market remains neutral to bullish, there may be a chase for higher bids.

PEPE: Like DOGE, it has also been hyped by SHIB. In this rotation, its performance is better than DOGE, which is a good sign. The more reactions like PEPE, the higher its effectiveness as a solid theme coin. Currently, I am more interested in buying spot than trading.

UNIBOT: It has had a crazy run similar to RLB. If you are bullish, you can also take a simple strategy of going long on the leader and buying on dips. Also, there are rumors that Unibot X will be launched this week (I've heard a lot of good things).

APE: In the past 6 months, the price of this coin has been falling, but the upcoming Apefest + new game release (may be worth paying attention to).

Overall, it is important to remain rational, assess the situation, manage risks, and seek sustainable investment returns.

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