8.11 Morning Analysis
BTC
- The CPI release value of 3.2 is considered to be in line with expectations without much fluctuation. The data has had a weak impact on the market in recent months, and the focus going forward is still on the interest rate hike in September.
Also, pay attention to the SEC's decision on ARK's ETF application on the 13th.
- The long position liquidation chart from yesterday was easily blown up by the "whale".
ETH
The trend is relatively weak, and in the short term, there is no clear indication of a market trend. Additionally, the SEC has recently raised concerns about XRP, which is not a good sign for ETH.
If XRP is classified as a security, then ETH will also face the risk of being classified as a security. This kind of risk is unacceptable for institutions outside the industry.
On-chain data shows that after the CRV incident, the TVL on the ETH chain is recovering, and it has now exceeded 24 billion. The staking rate on the beacon chain has also increased, with nearly 50,000 new stakes yesterday and only 5,000 withdrawals. It can be foreseen that ETH will become increasingly scarce in the future, with long-term storage value.
There are new developments in the Ripple case!
This time, it's something that people rarely hear about. The SEC may soon be calling for a reevaluation of Ripple. Previously, the court ruled that Ripple's XRP was not a security, causing XRP to double in value. However, last week, the Luna case also went to trial, and the judge in the Luna case ruled that Luna is a security. We'll have to wait and see if there will be more news coming out!
Altcoin Market!
Undoubtedly, the current period is the darkest days for the altcoin market. You can tell by looking at the trading volume, and most altcoins are still in a bearish state.
The trend, as shown in the chart, is underperforming compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The recent projects that have been hyped are mostly controlled by the "whales", such as the DWF series, or those that can ride on hot news.
For example, Aptos announced a partnership with Microsoft to develop an AI blockchain solution. If you look closely, Aptos is using Microsoft's Azure cloud services and OpenAI's services, so it's like me using WeChat, and I'm partnering with Tencent. So, the hype around APT is unlikely to last long. Previously, it partnered with Amazon Web Services and had a surge, but returned to its original state the same day. (You can only ambush in advance.)
At the altcoin level, don't be lured by malicious hype to buy into bad behavior. Recently, some market makers have been maliciously hyping to attract retail investors to buy in, in order to achieve their selling goals.
By paying attention, you'll know that in the current bear market cycle, there is no reason for a significant surge in the market, whether from a user perspective or an incremental capital perspective. However, some institutions have already done so, so if you blindly follow, I don't believe you won't end up losing.
In a bear market, we should try to protect our funds as much as possible, try to buy high-quality assets as much as possible, and try to avoid unnecessary trading.
Are there any opportunities in the altcoin market recently? (Yes)!
We've been observing WLD for a long time, and the recent 30% drop in the past week has caught our attention.
Contract Data
Since being suppressed around 2.5 on 8.3, the market has started to weaken. At this time, the CVD has been continuously weakening, indicating that the bears in the market have become more dominant after the price failed to break through 2.5.
The funding rate was negative from 8.2 to 8.3, when the price was at a high level, indicating that the main force was intentionally pushing up the spot price. Subsequently, as the price began to fall, the rate returned to normal.
The open interest has been climbing in the past few hours, almost returning to the level before the drop on 8.3. Since the drop on 8.3, WLD's open interest has mostly remained in the range of 16M-17M. It has now reached around 21M, an increase of about 25%-30%. Considering the market trend and data, short positions should be the main focus for opening positions here.
Is the market's decline caused by retail investors dumping?
I don't think so. First of all, retail investors make up a small proportion, and with differing opinions, they certainly cannot directly cause a sell-off. Secondly, market makers hold the majority of the circulating supply, and in this situation, what they are doing is manipulating the market. How could they let retail investors cut their losses?
Moreover, they have borrowed the coins, and they have to repay the loan in 3 months, so there are costs involved. Therefore, they must make a profit in WLD during these 3 months.
I believe that in the next month or so, the market may initiate a new round of speculation on WLD. So, we need to continue to pay attention to the abnormal phenomena in WLD.
For example, if the market's open interest increases, especially the short position, will the main force raise the price to liquidate the short positions after accumulating a certain amount?
Or is the current market decline part of the market maker's plan? To sell at a low level to absorb more chips, and then initiate another surge to attract market sentiment, and sell to retail investors at a high level?
Or should we refer to LINA, ARPA, YGG? So, I will be paying attention to the movements of WLD recently, and if there are any abnormal movements in the market, I will participate as soon as possible, following the main force.
In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the opportunity of the next bull market, you need to have a high-quality circle, where everyone can band together and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it's actually very difficult to persist in this industry.
If you want to band together or have any doubts, feel free to join us - WeChat Official Account: Crypto Wufan
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