Preface: Investment involves risks, please be cautious in your operations.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, and your readership is welcome!
Time of writing: 16:48, August 5th, Beijing time
Market Information
- Former US Treasury Secretary Summers: Unexpected decrease in unemployment rate, accelerated wage growth may trigger inflation to rise again;
- Elon Musk: X will "never" launch a cryptocurrency;
- Miami Mayor: Accepting Bitcoin for presidential campaign donations;
- Boston Fed President Rosengren: US employment growth is slowing in an orderly manner, no further rate hikes are needed;
- Probability of no rate hike by the Fed in September has slightly increased to 82.5%;
- Non-farm payroll lower than expected, BTC spiked to 29,263.17 USDT, with a fluctuation of 0.32% upwards;
Market Review
Last night, due to the release of non-farm employment data, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a small rebound, but the strength of the rebound was not significant. Bitcoin reached a high of 29,323, and Ethereum reached a high of 1851. Our strategy yesterday was to wait for this rebound before going short. The market did not reach our expected entry points, with Bitcoin at 26,650 and Ethereum at 1865. Those who still held long positions in Bitcoin should have been stopped out. Bitcoin's evening low was at 28,780, and Ethereum's low was at 1808. After the decline, the market quickly recovered. The intraday trading strategy remains to wait for a rebound before going short;
Market Analysis
BTC:
On the 4-hour chart, although Bitcoin fell to 28,780 yesterday, it quickly recovered to the support level of 28,850, which is a retest of short-term support and does not constitute an effective breakthrough. If it breaks, there is still a low point at 28,550. On a smaller time frame, Bitcoin's current move is a test of support, and there is a greater chance of a small rebound over the weekend. After the rebound, consider going short again. As long as the 28,550 level is not broken, the support remains valid. Intraday, continue to go long in the short term before going short, recommended entry point around 29,000, stop loss at 28,750, target range 29,550-29,780. After reaching this range, use the high point of 30,059 as a stop loss to go short, and observe for a breakthrough. The weekend trend may be relatively slow, so be patient in trading; control risk in short-term trading, and manage profits and losses on your own;
ETH:
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's short-term decline was more significant, falling to around 1808 and forming a relatively long lower shadow. The closing price was above the short-term support level of 1823, which can also be considered as effective support. There is a high probability of a small rebound for short-term Ethereum before going short again. Currently, the market trend has not broken, and those with long positions in the short term can take a small position. Recommended entry point for Ethereum over the weekend is around 1825, stop loss at 1805, target range 1850-1865. After reaching this range, use the previous high point of 1879 as a stop loss to go short, and observe for a breakthrough. Take the initiative to seize entry opportunities; control risk in short-term trading, and manage profits and losses on your own;
In summary:
Bitcoin and Ethereum's short-term decline formed lower shadows, and the support is valid. There will be a rebound opportunity over the weekend;
The article is time-sensitive, be aware of the risks, and the above is for reference only!
Follow the public account "Coin Circle War God" to explore the market together;
The greatest pain in trading is not misjudging the direction, but that the right direction is late. The rise and fall of the market is the verification of judgment, and time is the boundary of verification. Short-term traders play within the boundary, while long-term traders often play with the boundary. Probability is not the only measure of judgment; the risk-reward ratio is more important. If a single profit can cover multiple losses, the probability becomes less important. When trading, we are not here to avoid risks, but more importantly, to pursue profits. Excessive self-denial and implication will turn you into a coward. The more you fear, the more it will come true. The market will not pity anyone. Blind arrogance is not advisable, but excessive timidity is also frightening.
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