Any detectable judgment should be tested by the market! Even if you see many white swans, you cannot infer that all swans are white. As long as you see a black swan, it can prove that not all swans are white. This is the "black swan".

Every person thinks they are a financial expert. We believe that good traders only make money. Most people do not plan ahead in trading, and when they encounter losses, they often record small gains and large losses. When they make directional mistakes, it is difficult for them to adjust their position by admitting their mistakes, lacking critical thinking. It's harder to make bad traders give up their positions than to make them divorce!

Many people, after losing money, transform into long-term investors and refuse to accept the facts. Admitting losses is inevitable for good traders, but the amount lost should not exceed the prepared amount. People often only see others making huge wealth, without understanding the principles of operation, the risks others take, and not seeing the losers.

Market Review:

The US Treasury expanded the issuance of long-term bonds, leading to continued selling of long-term bonds. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose by more than 10 basis points, and the 30-year yield reached a nine-month high. The three major US stock indexes rebounded in intraday trading but continued to fall. Some leading technology stocks rebounded, with Tesla rising by more than 2%, supporting the S&P Nasdaq to briefly turn positive. After the earnings report, Qualcomm fell by over 8%, Amazon rose by over 10% in after-hours trading, and Apple fell by over 3% in after-hours trading. American Superconductor fell by 16%.

The US dollar index fell after hitting a near four-week high. The pound hit a one-month low after the Bank of England raised interest rates. Crude oil rebounded, rising by over 2% from a one-week low. Gold fell for the third consecutive day, continuing to move away from its two-and-a-half-month high.

For the past sixteen trading days without updates, Bitcoin has been running slowly according to our predetermined target. This week, it successfully returned to below 29,000, reaching a low of 28,555 at one point. Thus, any long positions taken below 27,000, 26,000, 25,000, or even 28,000 after taking profits at 31,400, and then switching to short positions below 29,000, have also been achieved as expected. However, the slow pace of the bear market has allowed this short three-wave trend to run for several months. Everything is within our expectations, but the profit effect is not strong. The three-wave trend has been running for several months, increasing both time and capital costs. Looking back, the market's liquidity has been depleted in recent months, and the slow pace of the coin's price fluctuations has not provided many opportunities.

As shown in the Bitcoin daily chart, the price has been weak and fluctuating since the end of June, with gradually lower highs, but the amplitude is not large, and the trend is relatively slow. In the first four trading days of this month, the long and short struggles were intense, and the daily chart continuously closed with small real bodies and long upper and lower shadows.

Looking at the weekly chart, the price has been slowly running around the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with an overall good trend. Currently, the price has once again retraced to near the middle track, and the daily Bollinger Bands have been continuously suppressed by the middle track, indicating a weak trend that keeps refreshing lower points. Currently, there are no signs of stabilization.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, it is important to pay attention to the support at 28,500, which is crucial for the short-term market trend.

As for the judgment of this high-point retracement trend, we have been resolute and firm. As we persist in our bearish view, the price has once again returned below 29,000 as we expected. So can we directly bottom fish at this level or below, and expect further strength in the price? Further observation is needed. At least for now, I believe it is not advisable to take action directly.

Today is the first Friday of the month, and there will be US non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate in the evening, which can be observed. If the difference between the actual and expected values is significant, the market may have an impact on the coin. Generally, if the difference is not significant, it will have a negligible impact on the coin price.

How should we view the intraday coin price? For intraday stability, you can choose to wait and see, as the price has been in a 400-point range for the past two or three trading days. For the aggressive, you can continue to try to follow the trend, as the trend is extremely weak, and continue to short. For the ultra-short term, focus on 28,500 below and 30,100 above. The volatility is too small, even if you make the lowest to the highest, it's only 400 points. Normally, our strategy is to enter the market with a 100-point range from the current price. Now, even after entering the market, there is only the price space to consider. Therefore, we will not make specific arrangements for the ultra-short term.

The volatility is small, the movement is slow, and the liquidity issue has not been resolved. Everyone needs to be more patient!

If there are any changes in the intraday price, the helmsman will provide real-time prompts!

All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market is risky, and speculation should be cautious!

All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market is risky, and speculation should be cautious!

All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market is risky, and speculation should be cautious!

       2023.8.4

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