Good evening everyone, I am Xin Ya. I have not tasted defeat for half a month, and remember that after the last update, I also won the market decisively.

Regarding Bitcoin, the structure is extremely complex and prone to evolution.

Let's briefly recap the process of Bitcoin hitting a new high starting from the afternoon of the 27th. First, it moved from 78800 to 80500, hitting resistance and retracing to 78800, then rebounding again to around 80500, hitting resistance twice, and after consolidating, it reached a new high of 81500. This entire process corresponded to a complete rhythm of "one move up, then a decline, and then exhaustion," with the momentum increasingly depleting and volume also weakening.

Now let's zoom out and look at the four-hour chart. On the 22nd, 25th, and 28th, it was almost the same; the upward momentum is increasingly diminishing, with MACD showing consecutive bearish signals, and the yellow and white lines are trending downward, indicating a potential reversal. This is a very important warning signal, but it is not an entry signal. This is already the second divergence, and there may be a third smaller level pulling a larger level, trading time for space. You cannot determine whether the market will substitute sideways movement for a drop.

So, what are the possibilities for the future market?

First, let's analyze based on the daily chart, which has not yet played out.

The first type is a new one-hour downtrend starting around 81500. Currently, there has already been a first fifteen-minute retracement, rebounding to the fifteen-minute center.

This corresponds to two possible scenarios for the future: one is that if it does not break above the fifteen-minute center at around 80500, it will then enter a fifteen-minute downtrend, completing a one-hour downtrend structure. During this process, there may be two additional fifteen-minute oscillations that affect the strength of the one-hour chart, which will further complicate the movement (and if it breaks below 75500, it will affect the four-hour trend structure).

The second scenario is if it breaks above 80500, to test the previous high, and after retracing to the fifteen-minute center, it continues to test new highs, disrupting the one-hour downtrend structure and completing an extension of the one-hour rebound. Similarly, there may be two additional internal structures within the fifteen minutes, creating a fifteen-minute center expansion that impacts the one-hour, and thus the four-hour trend structure.

Both of these scenarios essentially represent the internal differentiation of the four-hour oscillation. Based on the fact that the daily chart has not yet played out.

The second type is based on the situation that the daily chart has completed or is about to complete. Then, 81500 becomes a point of divergence in both the four-hour and fifteen-minute charts, acting as a sell signal. This possibility is not high, but corresponding strategies must exist. This future market would initiate a new one-hour downtrend. This overlaps partially with the previous scenario; this is the complexity of the market.

If this downtrend touches a one-hour center and rebounds, with the rebound not breaking the fifteen-minute center, it will form a second sell signal, likely around 78800. After the second sell signal forms, it could be disrupted by the next new fifteen-minute movement. Subsequent possibilities include a third sell signal, which does not need detailed explanation. We must wait for the market to confirm step by step. If the market develops into a four-hour downtrend, the third sell signal is expected between 76800-77800.

The corresponding four-hour downtrend structure will aim for the 72800-74000 range. The initial one-hour downtrend will touch upon the second and third sell signals.

As for Ethereum, let's not dwell on it; it is purely a oscillation market, repeatedly oscillating between upper and lower ranges, bouncing back and forth seven times in a week between 2450-2520, with the small level centers continuously moving upward, but the momentum is increasingly depleting.

I think the range of 2420-2550 has been enough to consolidate. To make money on Ethereum, you can only wait until you reach the divergence points to enter, and then provide a supplemental buying zone. Alternatively, you can monitor five-minute movements for high-frequency short-term small-level oscillation waves.

My suggestion is to trade in brackets within the range. Consider entering around 2450 and 2520 (conservatively, buy at 2420 and sell again at 2550), leaving a buffer for supplementary buying and stop-loss zones on both ends, each with thirty points, in this oscillating market. If the supplemental buying is triggered, the first priority is to reduce the average cost or exit; this way, it is hard to lose. If not triggered, just hold, target referencing the opposite segment. Either synchronize with Bitcoin market movements and handle the market based on oscillation logic.

In Bitcoin, the four-hour EMA30 and one-hour EMA120 are around 78500, the one-hour EMA144 is around 77900, and the one-hour MA200 is around 77700. The fifteen-minute EMA120 and 144 are around 79700, exerting pressure, while the four-hour EMA120 is around 72200.
These levels are closely related to many mentioned above and need to be considered seriously.

Based on these two categories of situations and the unfolding possibilities, the way to handle the future market is very simple for Bitcoin:
Below, key levels to focus on are 78800, 77800, 75800.
Above, key levels to focus on are 80500, 81400, 83300.
For Ethereum, below, focus on 2450, 2420, 2330.
Above for Ethereum, focus on 2520, 2550, 2670.

Controlling position sizes and leverage around these levels can lead to countless possible moves; these are the things you need to concern yourselves with.

The record of the previous segment of the market.

Synchronize and follow along, WeChat official account: Xin Ya Talks About Chan.

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