Recently, the market generally expects Bitcoin to go toward 50,000, but the U.S. stock market has been hitting new highs week after week, really surging. On the contrary, ETH is still hovering around 1,900, creating a striking contrast. So we officially start today’s Aster BTC market breakdown; friends holding positions can look at it as a reference.
In July, the U.S. CPI recorded 3.4%, meeting market expectations and lower than the previous value of 3.5%. After the data was released, the Federal Reserve had neither the reason to raise interest rates nor the motivation to cut rates, and Bitcoin experienced a short-term dip instead, resulting in a peak in liquidations that night.

There are actually three layers of logic behind this: First, the cooling of interest rate hike expectations has already been partially priced in by the market; this time it feels more like a confirmation rather than creating new expectations. Second and most importantly—Bitcoin has never lacked news, but rather real incremental funding. A decrease in interest rate pressure only means the weight on risk assets has lightened a bit, but it does not mean that funding will flow in to lift prices immediately. Especially near the end of a bear market, participation in the market will decrease, and the cost curve will gradually flatten from an initially steep slope.
I mentioned to everyone on Tuesday to avoid participating blindly in the short term, and to wait for a real bottom to come before entering; waiting a bit more won't hurt.
The U.S. stock market is also quite exaggerated; assets like SpaceX and SanDisk are very volatile. When we last discussed, the hype was still high, and many who chased in must be stuck now. Yushu Technology is similar; I bought a little when it was around 80 last week, and its price has been jumping wildly. For those with dispersed capital, you can take a look at the U.S. stocks in the short term, but the volatility is indeed considerable, so definitely don't use too much leverage.
In a rebound market, when the price returns to the public cost line, it easily triggers concentrated selling pressure, so this position naturally becomes a strong resistance. Just like now, the cost line for Bitcoin is around 67,900 USD, and since the rebound starting from June 20, the price has been suppressed below this line for almost two months now.

Recently, I have mainly focused on Bitcoin, and I advise everyone not to rush into altcoins yet.
Looking back at historical data, at the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, there were almost identical situations. The altcoin season that everyone eagerly anticipates has actually always been there, just appearing in a different form.
From August to November 2018, Bitcoin was suppressed in price realization in March for a whole 3 months; in the same period in 2022, it was likewise suppressed for three months. Later, the BCH hash war in 2018 and the FTX crash in 2022 caused prices to instantly break support, leading to extreme volatility. Both events occurred at the end of the bear market, indicating that long-term suppression by the cost line is essentially a manifestation of structural weakness, where any external force could break the weak balance immediately.

Let's look at the current market structure:
On the four-hour chart, it has already fallen below the bottom of the consolidation range at 63,000, with short positions increasing in size, and a short-term bearish trend has been preliminarily established. This morning, we were discussing that the airdrop army added a staggering 1 billion in volume, which is quite intimidating.
The daily volume-price divergence continues; the price is stagnant around 63,000, but the volume is not following suit, making the foundation for any rebound quite weak. Now that the price has dropped to the 0.618 position, which is just above 63,000, the bears continue to exert pressure. Before the CPI was released, everyone was looking at 67,000, but now they are starting to look down at a test level of 55,000.

Wait for a chance to get back in; don’t be afraid to miss out. Especially if you're holding altcoins, try to reduce leverage if possible.
In the past two weeks, while creating content, I have also been reviewing data from various chains and observing different KOL opinions; overall sentiment is rather bearish, with most looking at the 50,000 position. On Tuesday, someone mentioned shorting Ethereum; I feel it’s better to wait for the bottom to make a move; otherwise, it’s very tiring to trade back and forth. If you really want to trade, make sure to set good stop losses.
By the way, let’s talk about news related to gold; you might find it useful.
Gold previously surged to 4,400 and has now pulled back to around 4,300. Personally, I plan to wait until it gets closer to 4,000 before considering an entry. There are generally several ways to participate in gold: one is to leverage directly to trade gold; the second is to buy gold mining stocks and related assets; and the third is to trade spot contracts, which can be participated in through Aster or other exchanges.

Official website address:

https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2

By the way, I have a benefit to share with everyone. Previously, new and old users who bound their accounts received a 5% commission; now, if you bind using this link, it will automatically upgrade to a 10% cash rebate.

https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2

Curious about what positions everyone is holding now?
Let me share the Aster platform data I have organized.

In the past few days, I compared several competitive products, and the data from Aster still ranks relatively high. For those looking to grab airdrops, you can participate; the platform has trading volume brushing and point redemption activities. Recently launched tokens and transactions also have a 1.2 times point bonus.
Seasonal points = trading volume × 1.2x bonus (exclusive to new tokens)
Recently launched tokens: SNXX, LYTE, $MUBARAK, $1000CAT, (IOTX, )DOS
After the CPI release, the market felt less stimulated, I don’t know if everyone feels the same.
Recent movements in the circle are quite interesting, with Li Lin launching a new platform. After the compliance of U.S. stock assets, many old crypto players are diving into the RWA track to develop DEX, while the trading volume on Bitcoin has been slowly shrinking, making it feel like we are in a transitional period.
I currently have one wish: when the final drop truly comes, I can still stay at the table—this is the most important.
For friends with strength, you can now gradually lay out spots. The cost performance at positions like 40,000, 50,000, and 60,000 is still decent. In the last round, a friend bought at 50,000 and held until 120,000 without selling, and it feels like history is about to repeat itself this round.
Now Brother Sun is focusing on AI and Tron, and Li Lin launched UMX targeting RWA; if you’re interested, you can check it out. It’s also quite interesting that there are more platforms than users in the industry now. Everyone can first sort out worthy investments and gradually push forward according to their positions and plans. Many people were chatting in May and June; regular forces are entering the market, which is also worth paying attention to.
If you are doing RWA, I suggest going to the DEX of the BN ecosystem or Aster as well.
It’s very simple to operate: open the official website, click on the right to connect your wallet, and switch to Chinese; after successfully connecting, click “Tokens” on the left to choose newly listed ones.

These newly launched tokens, as well as investment targets related to U.S. stocks, are included.

Let me provide new friends with a complete Aster beginner's tutorial.
Aster DEX is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract exchange that supports high-leverage trading and cross-chain operations, with relatively low fees. Let me remind you: investing in crypto carries risks, please participate rationally.
The first step does not require traditional registration; you can get started by connecting your wallet in a few minutes.
Prepare wallets that support multiple chains, such as MetaMask and WalletConnect, and add networks supported by BNB Chain, Ethereum, etc.

On the official website, click "Connect Wallet" and select your wallet to complete authorization.
After the first connection, transfer funds such as USDT from a centralized exchange; you can check your balance on the dashboard and choose between spot or perpetual contract trading modes.

New users are advised to start with small transfers for testing, beginning with low leverage to familiarize themselves with the interface.
The platform's perpetual contract rates are very low, combined with the funding rate mechanism, the actual trading costs can be kept very small.
To receive rewards for activities, connect your wallet properly and find the "Promotions" tab, complete tasks like the first trade, and wait for the system to automatically issue rebates or bonuses. This is the complete beginner's guide for new friends.

Finally, let’s talk about some industry observations. I recently read an article that had some interesting viewpoints. This trend actually started in late 2024 or 2025.
In the past, the information chain in Crypto was very short: someone discovers a new project on Twitter → KOL spreads it → funds enter → price rises. By scrolling through Twitter quickly enough, one could gain Alpha. Many current lead trading logics are similar, where early research is followed by community participation for speculation.
But now it’s different; the market is becoming increasingly professionalized, with robots, market makers, on-chain monitoring, and internal circles’ efficiency rapidly improving. Many small studios and Alpha players have monopolized previous strategies through technology.
My understanding is that true Alpha is the ability to identify the essence and profit early when a project just emerges among a bunch of others.
In the future, every time a scaled meme stock emerges, it adds a new demand side for the corresponding stock. So the development ideas discussed previously are not wrong; they just need a bit of wind.
100 memes using GME as a pool translates to 100 pools needing GME; 1,000 memes using GME, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL as pools effectively means the entire meme market is helping absorb liquidity for stocks.
This also indicates that the real lack in the current stage is not the “stock on chain” itself, but the use cases and liquidity demands for stocks on the chain.
Simply moving GME to BSC won’t work if no one uses it for LP, collateral, lending, or dividends—it will just remain a tradable token.
The current game plan is to leverage the speculative, trading volume, and liquidity capabilities that Crypto excels at to in turn create on-chain demand for real assets. Once the TVL for meme stocks truly takes off, naturally, various plays like lending, collateral, derivatives, dividends, and vaults will follow.
If your main information sources are still just public timelines, you’re increasingly getting closer to the downstream of the information chain.
This is also why the future competitive advantages in Crypto may no longer be “who follows more KOLs” but rather “who can capture funding behavior earlier and enter into a higher quality information network.”
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