On July 30, 2026, the screen displayed a vibrant list of rising stocks: amidst an overall warming atmosphere with the Dow Jones up about 0.59%, the S&P 500 up about 1.28%, and the Nasdaq up about 2.68%, funds surged towards the AI hardware chain. SanDisk skyrocketed approximately 21.15% in a single day, Western Digital rose nearly 17%, and SK Hynix and Micron Technology also saw gains of more than ten percentage points. These stocks, seen as the “ammunition depot” for training large models, became the brightest light in this round of market. On the other hand, CNBC reported that the AI-themed hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded by Leopold Aschenbrenner, who had been touted as the “AI stock god,” encountered enormous losses due to misjudgments on heavily invested AI software stocks. The fund was forced to suspend some trading, initiate a gradual liquidation and settlements process, and attempted to sell some holdings, including Anthropic, to alleviate cash pressure. The frantic liquidity-boosting efforts stood in stark contrast to the collective celebration of hardware stocks. Cryptocurrency-themed stocks also provided a divided commentary on that day: Coinbase strengthened during the session, while Robinhood, also a thematic stock, fell against the trend, reminding investors that the narrative was no longer as simple as “any AI-related stock can rise.” The hardware was in demand, while the software faced liquidation, illustrating a clear shift in the valuation balance within the AI industry chain on the same trading day. This misalignment between narrative and funding preferences will become an unavoidable main line in analyzing the turning points of AI and cryptocurrency assets going forward.
Storage chips surge by 20% in one day: AI hardware becomes market darling
If cryptocurrency-themed stocks were still grappling with division, the real “foot voting” on that day was shown by the attitude of funds towards storage chips. On July 30, 2026, with the Dow up about 0.59%, the S&P 500 up about 1.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq soaring about 2.68%, the storage sector ignited market sentiment to its maximum extent: SanDisk surged approximately 21.15% in a single day, while Western Digital recorded about a 16.87% increase, and SK Hynix and Micron Technology also saw their stock prices rise by over ten percentage points. This was no longer a normal fluctuation “following the market,” but rather a collective rewriting of pricing for a specific track.
The companies that were pushed to the forefront are not the “software story giants” of AI concepts, but rather the upstream players providing core components for computing servers—SK Hynix and Micron Technology are the main suppliers of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) currently, and high-performance storage is essential as the “hardware foundation” for training and inference of large models. The mainstream interpretation in the market connects this surge to the expansion of AI computing demand and optimistic expectations for future HBM and high-performance storage shipments. However, it is worth emphasizing that on that day, there was no single, clear positive event recognized as the direct trigger. It looked more like a collective choice made by funds at the same time after the previous months of rising AI valuations: shifting from more abstract applications and software narratives to the “shovel-selling” hardware segment where capacity, prices, and orders could already be seen. This shift marked the most noteworthy repricing of preferences within the AI story.
25-year-old OpenAI researcher faces a downfall: software gamble leads to liquidation
At the same time that the hardware sector was elevated into the spotlight by funds, another story came to an abrupt stop. Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former researcher at OpenAI, was heralded by some media and investors as the “AI stock god” due to the aura of his previous employer and the narrative of “starting a fund at 25.” The hedge fund he established, Situational Awareness, tied its strategy almost entirely to AI-related assets, especially the most favored AI software and application stocks, attempting to amplify gains from this round of AI narratives through high concentration bets.
According to CNBC, such an aggressive positioning turned into a disaster this year. The fund encountered significant misjudgments in its investments in software stocks, suffering heavy damages as concentrated positions were struck hard in a market reversal, forcing the fund to initiate risk control measures: first suspending some trading and then entering a structured gradual liquidation and settlement process. To fill a liquidity void, the fund began to liquidate assets originally viewed as “long-term storage”—including attempts to sell its stakes in companies such as Anthropic. From publicly available information, outsiders still cannot ascertain its management size, exact losses, or investor list, but the downfall itself was enough to pierce through emotions: in an environment where software stocks in the AI sector are generally overvalued and narratives pushed to extremes, an industry bellwether, young “stock god” was the first to be liquidated, inevitably prompting investors to revisit a simple yet cruel question—do those high-valued AI software companies, which have yet to demonstrate a clear profitability model, truly justify their current price?
In the same wave of AI frenzy: hardware makes money, software gets injured
On the same trading day, the scene was highly fragmented: on one side, companies like SanDisk, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, engaged in storage, collectively surged with daily gains of over ten percentage points, becoming the brightest light in AI themes; on the other side, the hedge fund Situational Awareness, focusing on AI software and related stocks, was forced into liquidation for misdirecting its bets, with founder Leopold Aschenbrenner even needing to sell off off-market equities, including Anthropic, to secure liquidity. The market may not have stated it outright, but the emerging preference was already very clear: In betting on AI, HBM and high-performance storage, which can clearly see orders, capacity, and shipment rhythms, are viewed as one of the most scarce and price-powerful components in this round of large model infrastructure; while AI software and application companies, with untested business models and vague profitability paths, are beginning to pay the price for their past high valuations driven by “telling a story first, and looking for profit later.”
This indicates that the simple logic of “as long as it involves AI, it can rise” is becoming invalid, and funds are no longer willing to pay for vague prospects but are finely dissecting the industry chain: those with more reliable cash flows and stronger cost transfer capabilities are more deserving of enjoying high valuation premiums. For readers in the cryptocurrency market, this structural differentiation is not unfamiliar—on-chain, there are also infrastructure projects that are “shovel-selling” along with narrative-driven applications and conceptual assets. The former is more akin to HBM and storage manufacturers, where returns often follow real computing power and network usage; the latter is closer to high-expectation AI software stocks, where returns heavily depend on emotion and the continuation of the story, and once macro funds begin to tally, the risk-return curve will show significant differentiation.
US stock risk appetite rebounds, cryptocurrency-themed stocks exhibit differentiation
Shifting the perspective back to the secondary market on the same trading day: according to data from a single source, the Dow was up about 0.59%, the S&P 500 was up about 1.28%, and the Nasdaq was up about 2.68%, indicating an overall warming of risk appetite, with the Nasdaq, which has the highest weight in technology, showing the most remarkable increase. The previously surging storage chips and storage device sectors continued to be sought after, complementing the rise in the Nasdaq.
In such an environment, cryptocurrency-themed stocks also showed overall strength, but internal performances were already clearly differentiated: both serving as entry points for trading and investment, Coinbase saw intraday gains, while Robinhood’s stock price declined during the session, signaling not thematic rotation, but rather an evaluation of individual stocks within the same theme. This is quite similar to the structure of the AI sector—hardware and infrastructure segments are preferred more easily at times of increased risk appetite, as their paths to fulfillment are clearer, while software and application assets relying more on expectations and user imagination are more susceptible to scrutiny. For cryptocurrency investors, the simplistic view of “AI + cryptocurrency” as a high beta bet phase is fading; the real examination is: as there emerge both “projects working on underlying computing power and data” and “storytelling AI concept tokens” on-chain, which of these has a risk-return structure worthy of bearing in the next cycle.
From AI hardware to cryptocurrency assets: the costs of choosing the wrong track are manifesting
On July 30, 2026, both faces of the same AI fever were laid out on the table simultaneously: on one side, hardware stocks like SanDisk, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, surrounding HBM and high-performance storage, collectively surged, becoming the focus of that day’s market; on the other side, the Situational Awareness fund—which centered its bets on AI software stocks, created by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner and labeled as the “AI stock god”—entered liquidation due to misjudgment, forced to sell parts of its positions, including Anthropic, to relieve liquidity pressure. The stark contrast between the hardware gaining and the software exploding, combined with the strengthening of Coinbase and the weakening of Robinhood in cryptocurrency-themed stocks, indicates that the phase of “full revelry and blind gambles” in AI themes may be nearing its end. The market is shifting from listening to stories to observing realizations. Infrastructure segments with clear profitability paths find it easier to gain premiums, while software and applications driven solely by expectations face increasing scrutiny. For participants in cryptocurrency, “AI + cryptocurrency” no longer equate to a simple high beta bet, and it is necessary to clearly differentiate within the on-chain tracks: who is engaged in computing power, storage, data, and other underlying infrastructure and tools, and who is simply packaging concepts under the name of AI without verifiable business and cash flow; the former, even experiencing valuation corrections, may still have opportunities to be repriced in the next cycle, while the latter, once sentiment recedes, are often directly thrown out. Key variables worth closely monitoring in the future include: whether the current strength of the storage sector can establish a foothold in subsequent earnings reports and shipment verifications, whether more funds or projects focusing on AI software will expose risks, and the relative performance of AI-related assets on-chain in the next systemic adjustment. In the absence of longer historical samples and complete data, these evolutions will truly determine whether this round of AI narratives will peak here or enter a harsher selection race after a change in direction.
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